美国利率策略日报 8月26,日 2026 Troy Ludtka,美国经济学 troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 AI建设正在加速。7月份核心非国防资本品发货量同比增长10.6%%,创下该系列自1992,年开始以来的最强读数之一,仅次于1994年2月至1997年10月(IT/光纤建设)、2005年1月至2006年3月(房地产繁荣)、2011年8月至2012年6月(全球金融危机后复苏)以及2021年4月至2022年2月(疫情后V型复苏)期间。这一系列数据是最纯粹的信号之一,表明数据中心、AI生态系统以及更广泛的资本支出周期不仅持续,而且在加速。尽管实际设备投资也可能继续加速,但其中很大一部分支出来自进口商品;我们的团队估计,自2025,年3月以来,当前资本支出繁荣平均为季度GDP增长贡献了0.2个百分点,尽管它为Q2 GDP贡献了0.8个百分点。正如昨天所讨论的,由于股市财富效应允许家庭将储蓄率降至接近历史低点,消费运行在趋势之上。请订阅我们的新研究网站以访问我们的内容(此处)。来源:人口普查局、经济分析局、Haver、SMBC Nikko -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 发货量:非国防资本品(除飞机)同比变化(%) 实际资本支出投资(同比,%)
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AI 分析
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关键论点
- 7月核心非国防资本品出货量同比增長10.6%,为1992年以来最强劲的读数之一,表明数据中心/AI资本支出周期正在加速。
- 尽管资本品出货强劲,实际设备投资可能继续加速,但大部分支出来自进口商品,限制了国内GDP影响。
- 当前资本支出热潮自2025年3月以来平均仅对季度GDP增长贡献0.2个百分点,但第二季度贡献了0.8个百分点。
- 消费高于趋势水平,受股市财富效应支撑,家庭储蓄率降至接近历史低位。
风险
- 如果资本支出热潮严重依赖进口,可能无法转化为持续的国内增长,可能导致贸易逆差扩大。
- AI建设加速可能面临周期性或供给侧限制,这可能减缓投资步伐。
- 支持消费的股市财富效应如果市场回调可能逆转,拖累消费和整体增长。