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三井住友银行 · 2026/08/28

美国利率周报 20260828

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美国利率策略周报 8月28,日 2026 Joseph Abate,美国利率策略 Monty Gandhi,美国利率策略 Troy Ludtka,美国经济 joseph.abate@smbcnikko-si.com mgandhi@smbc-cm.com troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212 893-1592 1 212 224-5114 1 212-224-5483 •我们预计在主席杰克逊霍尔演讲后会有更多内容可写。与此同时,我们仔细审视了最新一轮关税。 •自3月1,以来,财政部已征收约$150bn关税,但支付了$120bn的IEEPA退款。 •7月24,,它扩大了第301条关税,将违反强迫劳动规则的10个国家纳入征收12.5%关税的范围。这些新关税预计将完全取代第60条每月约$20bn的征收额。 •截至8月122,新的19,关税将适用于加拿大的酒精、乳制品、木材和消费品。 •大多数企业(约50%)将部分或全部更高的关税成本转嫁给客户。但是,即使企业完全转嫁了更高的进口成本,由于现有合同或避免客户价格冲击的意愿,影响可能不会立即显现。 •截至6月,约一半的企业尚未完全分阶段实施关税转嫁。多数企业预计将在未来75%m内完成。我们预计关税通胀效应将在今年秋季减弱。 •看跌的9月季节性因素可能给美国国债带来压力,但政策支持可能提供逢低买入6s的机会,尤其是在全球风险因素缓解的情况下。 •我们预测总体和私人非农就业人数分别增加10和57,000。我们预计失业率将保持在68,000。过去三个月,非农就业人数平均每月增长4.1%。替代关税 我们预计在主席杰克逊霍尔演讲后会有更多内容可写。与此同时,我们仔细审视了最新一轮关税。第20,000条、第232条和第1条关税在IEEPA互惠关税和第301条关税分别于2月底和7月到期后仍然有效。第122条关税是临时关税,税率为122,持续10%天。自3月150以来,财政部已征收约1,bn关税,但支付了$150bn的IEEPA退款(图$120)。政府正寻求弥补第1条到期造成的收入损失。第1条对钢铁、铝、汽车和半导体征收国家安全关税。这些关税根据产品和原产国不同,在23210之间。

SMBC美国利率策略周报 2 122。7月24,日,该法案将第301条关税扩大至包括对违反强迫劳动规则的10或12.5%个国家的60关税。这些新关税预计将完全取代3月至7月期间第122条每月征收的约$250亿美元。本月,政府根据第338条对加拿大增加了新的关税。自8月19,日起,新的50%关税将适用于加拿大的酒精、乳制品、木材和消费品。IEEPA到期后,平均有效关税率(即关税与进口值的比率)从去年秋季超过11%的峰值降至7%(图2)。2有效税率根据经济效应进行调整,以反映进口商转向国内替代品或增加库存的行为变化。如果没有替代关税,CBO将其10年预算赤字预测上调$2万亿美元。3主要赤字预计因收入损失而增加$1.6万亿美元,而由于财政部需要额外融资$1.6万亿美元,其利息成本增加$400亿美元。由于第301条关税的扩大范围与第122条关税大致相同,我们预计明年平均有效关税率将保持在7%附近。同样,财政部应该能够收回$1.6万亿美元的收入。我们预计301的扩大不会增加通胀,尽管未来几个月可能仍会有一些早先关税的持续传导效应。大多数企业(大约占75%)将部分或全部更高的关税成本转嫁给客户。Abel等人(__2025__)估计,大约有1/3的制造商和45%的服务提供商完全转嫁关税。4类似比例的制造商和服务商(即介于20-25%之间)吸收了更高的进口成本。其余部分则转嫁部分关税成本。重要的是,即使对于完全转嫁更高进口成本的企业,其影响也可能不是立即的。首先,许多商品或服务受解放日之前签署的合同约束。因此,新客户价格只能在现有协议到期后生效。2参见“有效关税率和收入”,Penn Wharton预算模型,2025年8月10, 2026 3参见“关于CBO关税预算影响预测的最新情况”,P. Swagel,国会预算办公室,2025年3月5, 2026 4参见“企业是吸收关税还是将其转嫁给客户?”,J. Abel, R. Deitz, S. Heise, B. Hyman, 和N. Montalbano, 纽约联邦储备银行,Liberty Street Economics, 2025年6月4, 2025 图1:净关税收入(十亿美元) 图2:有效关税率(%) 注:关税减去IEEPA退款。来源:美国财政部,SMBC日兴证券 来源:Penn Wharton预算模型,SMBC日兴证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 11月-25 1月-26 3月-26 5月-26 7月-26 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1月-25 4月-25 7月-25 10月-25 1月-26 4月-26

SMBC美国利率策略周报 3 其次,我们怀疑企业因担心失去业务而不愿立即提价。相反,如果它们拥有一定的合同灵活性,可能会在一年左右的时间内逐渐提价,以收回进口成本。截至6月,Abel等人(2026)发现,约一半的服务业和商品公司已完全转嫁关税或自行吸收。其余公司尚未完成分阶段调整,尽管多数公司预计将在未来6个月内完成。我们预计关税对通胀的影响将在年底前逐渐减弱。

9月季节性因素 vs. 财政部看跌期权

自回购公告以来,曲线扭曲有所趋平。进入9月,债券市场面临四股力量:宏观因素、地缘政治/石油、Warsh的反应函数以及Bessent看跌期权。此外,市场季节性因素偏空。9月季节上是企业债券发行量大的月份,今年迄今,由于与AI相关的借贷较多,期限结构集中于长端。

抵消因素。即使Bessent看跌期权不太可能改变长期动态,它仍可能在短期内压低收益率,尤其是当它与油价和G10长端收益率的缓解同时出现时。期权市场也有支撑信号。3个月25delta看跌与看涨期权偏斜在30年期期货上已从高位回落(图3),而收益率则滞后。历史上,风险逆转的下降与收益率走低相吻合。第二个抵消因素来自股市,股市距高点仅差几个百分点,在中期选举前容易受到避险情绪的影响。

如何操作。在9月初逢低买入10年期,或当ACM期限溢价高于80bp时买入。自4月2025以来,该溢价一直处于50-90bp区间(图4)。同样的企业供应表明,9月第一周至一周半内,互换利差将收窄。如果股市在中期选举前出现任何疲软,利差有进一步收窄的空间。在回购增加后,利差接近局部高位——这是减持多头并在9月供应清算后重新进入的好水平。

图3:30年期期货3个月25delta看跌期权与看涨期权

图4:10年期期限溢价

来源:彭博,SMBC日兴;来源:美联储,SMBC日兴

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4 4 5 5 6 1月-23 1月-24 1月-25 1月-26 30年期(左轴) 25日看跌期权 vs 长期国债期货看涨期权 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1月-25 5月-25 9月-25 1月-26 5月-26

SMBC美国利率策略周报 4 未来一周 • ISM制造业指数(8月,周二)和ISM服务业指数(8月,周四):我们预计8月ISM制造业指数将上升,从7月的55.6升至56.1。此前,帝国州和费城联储等地区性指数表现强劲,8月均升至2021以来的最高水平。ISM指数自年初以来已上升7.7个百分点(图5)。今年的上升主要受所有分项指数广泛复苏推动,尤其是就业分项。相比之下,ISM服务业指数今年基本持平。我们预计该指数8月将小幅上升至54.7,其中就业和供应商交付分项回升,而新订单和商业活动可能走软。 • 就业报告(8月,周五):我们预测总体非农就业和私人部门非农就业分别增加57,000人和68,000人。我们预计失业率将持稳于4.1%。过去三个月,非农就业平均每月增长20,000人。部分疲软与政府部门有关。3月疫情刺激法案(ESSER)到期,导致地方教育就业累计减少98,000人(图6)。我们估计,到年底,地方政府这一分项可能再减少87,000人。另一项疫情刺激法案(SLFRF)将于12月31,日2026,到期,可能会从州和地方政府(不包括教育)就业中减少127,000个岗位(超过2027)。相比之下,私人部门就业更为强劲,过去3个月平均每月增加40,000人。就业增长乏力——无论是私人部门还是公共部门——并未推高失业率,因为劳动力供应疲弱。 图5:ISM制造业(7个月变化) 图6:地方政府教育服务就业(千人) 资料来源:ISM、Haver、SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:BLS、Haver、SMBC日兴证券 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

SMBC美国利率策略周报 5 表3:经济指标预测

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关键论点
  • 关税收入替代:第301条扩大应能收回损失的收入,使有效关税率保持在7%附近。
  • 关税通胀影响预计在年底前消退,因为转嫁完成。
  • 9月季节性因素对国债不利,但政策支持可能提供买入机会。
  • 预计8月ISM制造业指数升至56.1;服务业升至54.7。
  • 非农就业预测:总体+5.7万,私营+6.8万;失业率稳定在4.1%。
风险
  • 9月企业发行可能推高收益率。
  • 地缘政治和油价冲击可能导致国债看跌。
  • 转嫁效应可能持续比预期更长,使通胀保持高位。
  • 如果政府就业下降加速,劳动力市场疲软可能加剧。