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三井住友银行 · 2026/08/28

美国利率策略 · 关键原则而非前瞻性指引

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美国利率策略 Joseph Abate 八月 28, 2026 joseph.abate@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212 893-1592 关键原则而非前瞻指引 美联储主席沃什阐述了他对前瞻指引的批评,并提供了一些关于更加依赖数据的美联储将关注什么的线索。然而,这些更多是“关键原则”,而非一个条件式或基于情景的反应函数。• 沃什仍然对前瞻指引持严厉批评态度,尤其是在金融危机和新冠疫情期间使用的那些。他认为,确定性的、预先承诺的指引一旦经济正常化就会导致政策错误,正如疫情后发生的那样。• 虽然经济学家现在普遍认为,一旦经济脱离零利率下限,预先承诺长期维持低利率是不明智的,但对于其他形式的前瞻指引仍存在更多争论。1 例如,美联储可以概述其中期展望,同时强调预测中的风险以及可能的应对方式。将反应函数锚定在预测上,可以使政策保持灵活和数据依赖。市场通过将当前数据与中期预测进行比较,自行判断美联储可能采取的行动。或者,它可以提供概述可能政策路径的情景。无论哪种方式,政策都取决于经济状态和数据流。• 然而,沃什似乎连这种类型的指引也持怀疑态度。他认为基于预测的指引“在实验室比在实地更有效”。例如,他指出FOMC成员一直预测通胀将回到2%,尽管疫情后出现迹象表明并非如此。• 相反,他认为政策应受一套“关键原则”指导。这意味着更强调“趋势”而非“孤立数据”。政策通过短期利率的变动来实施,而非量化宽松。价格稳定由PCE指数定义——尽管在讨论当前状况时,他提到了其他指标,包括CPI内的价格离散度以及大宗商品。也就是说,他认为工资对预测通胀的参考价值较低。最后,他主张“我们应该关注央行创造的货币”。我们认为这是对美联储资产负债表规模的隐晦提及。• 虽然主席阐明了指导政策的一般原则,但这些可能仍不够详细,无法让人了解沃什领导的美联储将如何应对不同的经济情景。市场对他听起来更偏鹰派且重申美联储2%PCE价格稳定目标感到宽慰。但如果没有更多方向,美联储和市场有点陷入镜像迷宫——各自反射出它认为对方在想什么。1 参见“前瞻指引的当前问题”,T. Adrian,国际货币基金组织,八月 2026。

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关键论点
  • 沃什对前瞻性指引尤其是危机期间使用的确定性预先承诺指引持深度批评态度,认为一旦经济正常化会导致政策错误。
  • 基于预测的指引“在实验室中比在实际中效果更好”,因为FOMC成员持续预测通胀将回归2%,尽管疫情后出现迹象表明并非如此。
  • 政策应以“关键原则”为指导,关注趋势而非孤立数据,通过短期利率实施,以PCE作为价格稳定衡量标准。
  • 应关注中央银行创造的货币,可能指资产负债表规模,且工资对预测通胀的帮助较小。
  • 这些原则不够详细,无法理解美联储如何应对不同情景,使美联储和市场陷入“镜像迷宫”。
风险
  • 缺乏详细的前瞻性指引可能增加市场不确定性和波动性。
  • 如果美联储误判经济趋势或过度强调资产负债表效应,可能出现政策错误。
  • 市场可能误解“关键原则”,导致利率预期错误定价。