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野村证券 · 2026/08/01

美国经济每周更新

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美国经济每周更新

我们关于美国经济发展和关键主题的每周更新

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Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

This content has been prepared by Nomura solely for information purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or provide (as the case may be) or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security, product, service (including but not limited to investment advisory services) or investment. The opinions expressed in the content do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate.The content contains general information only and does not take into account the individual objectives, financial situation or needs of a person. All information, opinions and estimates expressed in the content are current as of the date of publication, are subject to change without notice, and may become outdated over time. To the extent that any materials or investment services on or referred to in the content are construed to be regulated activities under the local laws of any jurisdiction and are made available to persons resident in such jurisdiction, they shall only be made available through appropriately licenced Nomura entities in that jurisdiction or otherwise through Nomura entities that are exempt from applicable licensing and regulatory requirements in that jurisdiction. For more information please go to https://www.nomuraholdings.com/policy/terms.html.

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 第三季度实际GDP年化增长率为1.8%,得益于稳健的消费支出和企业投资。
  • 劳动力市场仍有韧性,7月非农就业增加18万,失业率为4.1%。
  • 核心PCE通胀同比为2.8%,高于美联储目标,促使美联储维持鹰派立场。
  • 预计美联储在2026年全年将联邦基金利率维持在5.50%-5.75%,风险偏向加息。
  • 消费者信心和零售销售数据表明支出正在放缓但不会崩溃,支持软着陆情景。
风险
  • 由于贸易政策导致的供应链中断,通胀可能重新加速,从而引发加息。
  • 如果信贷条件进一步收紧,劳动力市场可能比预期更快走弱。
  • 长时间的高利率可能引发部分银行部门的金融不稳定。