宏观：杰克逊霍尔会议与美联储主席凯文·沃什的讲话是本次会议的重点
股票：美国科技股因财报强劲而上涨，欧洲股市因法国政治风险下跌，亚洲股市在杰克逊霍尔会议前交投谨慎。
数字资产：比特币在 80k 附近交投，有望连续第二周上涨
大宗商品：尽管海湾地区出口增加，原油价格仍走强；在沃什讲话前，黄金保持在美元 4,600 下方；小麦和玉米录得强劲周度涨幅
固定收益：收益率走高，但仍处于近期区间内，低于周期高点。
外汇：在美联储主席沃什讲话前，美元微升至当地高点
自动质量提示本研报仍可阅读，但 AI 分析或译文低于优选质量阈值，已进入改进队列。重要判断请同时核对官网原文。
完整研报正文
完整中文译文
市场快讯 - 科技股财报提振窄幅市场，沃什登上杰克逊霍尔讲台
市场驱动因素与催化剂
宏观
杰克逊霍尔会议是本次会议的唯一参考点。美联储主席凯文·沃什将于 14:00 GMT 发表其任内的首次研讨会主旨演讲，市场仓位围绕偏鹰派基调建立，旨在锚定长期收益率。此次讲话在 19 天后、即 16 9月联邦公开市场委员会会议之前，在连续多轮数据走软后，货币市场定价9月降息的可能性约为三分之一。
两家亚洲央行则趋向相反方向。东京不包括生鲜食品的8月核心CPI同比上涨 1.8%%，连续第三个月加速，增强了日本央行加息的理由，9月行动成为焦点。韩国央行以六比一的投票结果连续第二次加息 25 basis point 个基点，将利率上调至 3.00%%，理由是史无前例的半导体繁荣推动经济增长强于预期。
更多内容请参阅我们的宏观分析及宏观经济新闻
宏观经济日历重点（时间为GMT）
0755 – 德国8月失业人数/失业率
1400 – 美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话
1400 – 美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值
今日，在全球央行行长齐聚杰克逊霍尔之际，美联储主席凯文·沃什将发表其首次主旨演讲，尽管他可能就稳定币在金融体系基础设施中的潜在用途发表看法，但市场更关注美联储的利率政策意图。
财报事件
周二：Palo Alto Networks、Medtronic、MongoDB、Credo Technology、NIO、GitLab、Dell Technologies
周三：Broadcom、Snowflake、Hewlett Packard Enterprise、NetApp、Five Below
周四：Zscaler、Lululemon、Ciena、Samsara、DocuSign、Planet Labs
有关所有宏观、财报和股息事件，请查看盛宝银行的日历。
股票
美国：标普500指数上涨0.7%，道琼斯指数上涨0.2%，纳斯达克100指数上涨1.4%，尽管涨势几乎完全由科技股推动，且等权重标普500指数下跌0.3%。英伟达飙升8.7%，市值增加$442亿美元，此前该公司预计财年2028,营收增长约70%，而赛富时因强劲展望及与Anthropic深化合作而上涨22.6%。CrowdStrike在强劲盈利和上调指引后上涨20.5%。盘后，Gap因上调盈利展望而上涨13.3%，而Marvell大幅下跌，因其与谷歌的交易未能显著提振长期营收前景。
欧洲：Stoxx 600指数下跌0.7%，创237月以来的最大跌幅，富时100指数下跌0.8%，原因是法国政治不确定性打击市场情绪。法国CAC 40指数在关键总统辩论前跑输大盘，法国巴黎银行下跌4.8%，基础设施集团Eiffage下滑7.4%，因投资者重新评估政治和财政风险。保乐力加也走弱，此前该公司警告增长将处于预期区间低端。德国股市逆势上扬，DAX指数上涨0.3%，受英伟达业绩带动，SAP因人工智能热情重燃而上涨5.5%。
亚洲：周五亚洲市场开盘谨慎，等待美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，韩国Kospi指数开盘下跌约1.1%，尽管英伟达业绩强劲。韩国存储器类股走弱，投资者消化韩国央行第二次加息的影响，而日经225期货基本持平，市场等待东京通胀数据和日本国债拍卖。新加坡STI指数周四下跌0.7%，其中云顶新加坡下跌2.3%，创业公司上涨1.7%。百度在香港一度上涨高达4.2%，此前该公司确认将从19月起转为双重主要上市。
更多内容请见我们的股票交易——股票市场分析与新闻
数字资产
科技股财报后，恐慌读数大幅下降。VIX指数下跌4.73%至14.50，而同日VIX1D下跌10.77%至11.52，VIX9D下跌9.23%至12.10。纳斯达克波动率回落5.51%至20.24，VVIX指数下跌2.75%至82.90。
曲线保持陡峭的期货升水，九天期约12.10，而三个月期约17.56，近期期货16.70，SKEW指数维持高位144.05。MOVE指数走强0.61%至69.86。标普500指数期权隐含今日波动0.55%，至周五49月1.25%，杰克逊霍尔会议是催化剂。预期波动数据为期权隐含值，并非预测；期权存在快速亏损的高风险。
大宗商品
原油：油价守住周四涨幅，布伦特原油升至每桶 90 美元附近，因美伊达成协议全面重开霍尔木兹海峡的前景消退。白宫表示，美国未与伊朗谈判，对伊朗港口的封锁将继续维持。尽管缺乏外交突破，但随着霍尔木兹海峡的运输持续恢复，原油仍将录得三周以来的首次周线下跌。波斯湾产油国正在增加出口，高盛估计，流量已达到战前水平的三分之二左右，目前通过该海峡的原油运输量估计为每天 6–8 百万桶。
黄金：金价维持在每盎司 4,600, 美元下方，本周后段在近期强劲上涨后进行盘整，投资者在今日美联储主席沃什发表重要讲话前权衡美国利率前景。本月金价已上涨约 13% ，受到财政债务担忧和对货币贬值的重新关注的支撑。这些支撑黄金的担忧并未消失，但眼下交易员关注沃什和短期利率轨迹，市场已完全消化年底前加息 25 个基点。
涵盖广泛资产的彭博大宗商品指数本周基本持平，此前三周录得强劲上涨。能源价格下跌和贵金属获利回吐抵消了农业板块的又一强劲周表现，尤其是谷物，价格触及两年高位，玉米和小麦领涨，因供应担忧加剧。本月，BCOM 指数上涨 6.4% ，受贵金属、软商品和谷物板块两位数的涨幅支撑，突显出大宗商品涨势日益广泛的特点。
更多内容请见我们的《大宗商品新闻、分析与评论》
固定收益
周四国债表现略微疲软，收益率曲线前端收益率回升至近期高位附近，接近 4.25% ，市场关注周五晚些时候美联储主席沃什在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的讲话，而较长端收益率也小幅走高，但仍交投于近期区间中部，10年期和 30 年期国债收益率基准均如此。
美国高收益债券相对于美国国债的收益率利差已收窄至一个多月以来的最窄水平，我们跟踪的彭博利差指标为 263 basis points ，与 7 月初以来的低点持平，距后全球金融危机时期创下的纪录低点 250 basis points 不远。
外汇
美元仍处于观望模式，各货币波动率低迷，市场关注美联储主席沃什备受期待的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔讲话，美元略微走强，欧元兑美元即期汇率略低于 1.1650 ，美元兑日元回升至 159.50 上方，关注若美元兑日元突破 160.00 则官方干预以削弱日元汇率的可能性。
更多外汇内容，请参见我们的专门板块：《外汇交易新闻与分析》
完整英文原文
Market drivers and catalysts
Macro: Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech are the session’s key focus
Equities: US technology surged on earnings strength, Europe fell on French political risk, Asia traded cautiously ahead of Jackson Hole.
Digital Assets: Bitcoin holds near 80k and a back-to-back weekly gain
Commodities: Crude firms despite rising Gulf exports; gold holds below USD 4,600 ahead of Warsh speech; wheat and corn post strong weekly gains
Fixed Income: Yields pull higher, still within recent range below cycle highs.
Currencies: USD edges to local highs ahead of Fed Chair Warsh speech
Macro
Jackson Hole is the session's single reference point. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first symposium keynote as chair at 14:00 GMT, and positioning has been built around a hawkish tone intended to anchor long yields. The speech lands 19 days before the 16 September FOMC, with money markets pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a September move after a run of softer prints.
Two Asian central banks moved the other way. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.8% year-on-year in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan increase, with September now in focus. The Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25 basis point rise to 3.00% in a six-to-one decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0755 – Germany Aug. Unemployment Claims / Unemployment Rate
1400 – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole
1400 – US Aug. Final University of Michigan Sentiment survey
Today, at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote, and while he is likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.
Earnings events
Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.4%, although technology almost entirely drove the rally and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while Salesforce jumped 22.6% on a strong outlook and deeper Anthropic partnership. CrowdStrike rallied 20.5% after strong earnings and higher guidance. After hours, Gap gained 13.3% after raising its earnings outlook, while Marvell fell sharply as its Google deal failed to meaningfully lift its longer-term revenue outlook.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7%, its biggest decline since 23 July, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.8% as French political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. France’s CAC 40 underperformed ahead of a key presidential debate, with BNP Paribas falling 4.8% and infrastructure group Eiffage sliding 7.4% as investors reassessed political and fiscal risks. Pernod Ricard also weakened after warning that growth would land at the lower end of expectations. Germany bucked the trend, with the DAX rising 0.3% as SAP gained 5.5% on renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s results.
Asia: Asian markets opened cautiously on Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with the Kospi falling around 1.1% at the open despite Nvidia’s strong results. South Korean memory shares weakened as investors digested the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate increase, while Nikkei 225 futures were broadly flat ahead of Tokyo inflation data and a Japanese government bond auction. Singapore’s STI had fallen 0.7% on Thursday, with Genting Singapore down 2.3% and Venture Corp up 1.7%. Baidu gained as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong after confirming its move to a dual-primary listing from 1 September.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News
Digital Assets
Fear readings fell sharply after the technology earnings. VIX dropped 4.73% to 14.50 while same-day VIX1D fell 10.77% to 11.52 and VIX9D 9.23% to 12.10. Nasdaq volatility eased 5.51% to 20.24 and VVIX 2.75% to 82.90.
The curve held a steep contango, 12.10 at nine days against 17.56 at three months, with the front future at 16.70 and SKEW elevated at 144.05. MOVE firmed 0.61% to 69.86. SPX options imply 0.55% today and 1.25% into Friday 4 September, with Jackson Hole the catalyst. Expected-move figures are option-implied, not forecasts; options carry a high risk of rapid loss.
Commodities
Oil: Oil held onto Thursday’s gains, with Brent rising towards USD 90 as prospects for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded. The White House said the US is not negotiating with Iran and that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Despite the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough, crude is still heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks as flows through Hormuz continue to recover. Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating that flows have reached around two-thirds of pre-war levels and crude transits through the Strait now running at an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day.
Gold: Gold holds below USD 4,600, having spent the latter part of the week consolidating following recent strong gains as investors weigh the outlook for US interest rates ahead of today’s key speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Gold has gained around 13% this month, supported by fiscal debt concerns and a renewed focus on currency debasement. Those gold-supportive concerns have not gone away, but for now traders are focused on Warsh and the trajectory of short-term rates, with a full 25-basis-point hike priced in before year-end.
The broad-based Bloomberg Commodity Index trades broadly unchanged on the week following strong gains during the previous three. Lower energy prices and profit-taking across precious metals have offset another strong week for agriculture, particularly grains, where prices reached a two-year high led by gains in corn and wheat amid mounting supply concerns. For the month, the BCOM is up 6.4%, supported by double-digit gains across precious metals, softs and grains, highlighting the increasingly broad-based nature of the commodity rally.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary
Fixed Income
Treasuries traded slightly weakly on Thursday as yields at the front end of the curve edged back toward recent highs near 4.25% ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech later Friday, while longer-dated yields were also marginally higher, if still trading near the middle of the recent range for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yield benchmarks.
US high-yield bond yield spreads to US Treasuries have narrowed to their tightest levels in well over a month, with the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread at 263 basis points, matching the low since early July and not far from the record post-GFC low of 250 basis points.
Currencies
The US dollar remains in a holding pattern amidst muted volatility across currencies and ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech, slightly firmer as EURUSD has slipped just below 1.1650 and USDJPY squeezed back above 159.50, eyeing the odds of official intervention to weaken the JPY should 160.00+ trade.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis
预览 PDF
正在载入文档……
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
- 美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔的首个主题演讲是本次会议的唯一参考点，市场预期鹰派基调以锚定长期收益率。
- 美国科技股因强劲盈利而大涨，推动市场窄幅上涨，而等权重标普500下跌0.3%。
- 比特币在连续周上涨后持稳于8万附近，受风险偏好改善支撑。
- 尽管海湾出口增加，原油走强，因为美伊协议前景减弱。
- 黄金在强劲上涨后盘整，持稳于4600下方，年底前已完全定价加息25个基点。
- 两家亚洲央行加息：韩国央行加息至3.00%，东京CPI加速，增强日本央行加息预期。
- 收益率在近期区间内走高，前端接近4.25%，高收益利差收窄至一个多月来最紧水平。
风险
- 美联储主席沃什的鹰派意外可能引发股市和黄金抛售。
- 法国政治不确定性可能进一步拖累欧洲股市。
- 通胀再度抬头可能迫使央行更激进地收紧政策。
- 中东地缘政治风险可能扰乱石油供应。
- 股票估值高企，尤其是科技股，存在大幅回调风险。