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三井住友银行 · 2026/08/27

082726 疫情资金断崖冲击政府部门就业

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美国利率策略日报 8月27,日 2026 Troy Ludtka,美国经济学家 troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 疫情资金断崖冲击政府部门就业 两项疫情时期的刺激法案正在逐步退出,这将削弱未来一年公共部门的劳动力需求。自3月2026日$190B的ESSER资金到期以来,地方政府的教育机构就业人数已减少-98千人,该资金曾使地方政府教育就业在到期前升至8.24M的峰值(比疫情前水平高出185千人)。鉴于ESSER支持的185千个岗位中已有98千人被裁减,我们估计仍有约87千个教育岗位面临风险。虽然ESSER资金适用于地方学校,但用于支持教育以外州和地方政府的$350B州和地方财政恢复资金(SLFRF)将在12月31日前支出完毕。如下所示,我们估计这一资金缺口将导致-127千人失业,使疫情刺激相关的失业总人数达到约-214千人。对于8月份的就业数据:我们预测非农就业为+57千人,私营非农为+68千人,失业率为4.1%。

2 地方政府教育服务就业人数(千人)资料来源:BLS,Haver,SMBC日兴 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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关键论点
  • ESSER资金到期已导致地方政府教育就业人数减少9.8万,另有8.7万个工作岗位面临风险。
  • SLFRF资金将于12月31日到期,预计将导致州和地方政府非教育岗位减少12.7万个。
  • 与疫情刺激相关的总失业人数估计为21.4万。
  • 8月预测:非农就业+5.7万,私人非农就业+6.8万,失业率4.1%。
风险
  • 如果SLFRF资金未完全使用或被其他资金替代,失业影响可能较轻。
  • 教育岗位的减少可能被其他行业的招聘部分抵消。
  • 这些估计基于当前趋势,可能会随着新数据而改变。