我们预计美国经济将实现温和、接近趋势的增长，这得益于人工智能相关投资、基础设施支出和企业利润的韧性，但增长日益集中，能源价格、关税和供应链压力使得通胀风险上升。
我们认为保险公司应保持适度建设性但选择性的风险姿态，强调可靠收益、下行韧性、流动性和再投资灵活性，而非在利差紧张时增加广泛的信贷β敞口。
在固定收益领域，我们青睐证券化信贷，尤其是优先CLO，同时选择性配置前端和中期投资级公司债、机构MBS和高品质应税市政债；NAIC规则的演变有可能进一步提升优先CLO分层的相对资本效率。
在其他资产类别中，我们对美国股市持中性态度，因为强劲的盈利被不断增加的发行量和局部过热所平衡，相对于欧洲，我们更青睐新兴市场股市，在油价大幅下跌后持有小幅超配，并对黄金转为中性。
我们继续预期美国经济将实现温和、接近趋势的扩张，增长保持韧性但日益集中。与人工智能相关的投资、基础设施支出、稳健的企业利润以及总体有利的金融状况继续支撑经济活动，但消费表现不均，科技板块以外的盈利不那么强劲。这使得经济处于稳定但更为复杂的境地：我们并未假设广泛的再加速，但也未看到即将恶化的明确证据。
通胀仍是主要的宏观不确定性。近期的压力越来越多地反映了供给端因素，包括能源、关税和供应链，这些因素对央行而言更难在不拖累增长的情况下加以应对。我们的基准情景假设能源价格仍高于去年水平，但低于此前的峰值，从而使购买力和整体经济活动逐步改善。然而，新的能源冲击可能拖累消费支出和利润率，同时给债券收益率带来上行压力。
在此背景下，我们的基准情景是美联储（Fed）维持利率不变。更重要的问题不仅是下一次政策行动，而是美联储的反应函数可能如何演变。更加重视通胀可信度、减少对前瞻指引的依赖、以及更加基于判断来区分供给驱动和需求驱动的通胀，可能使政策变得不那么可预测。因此，我们预计美国利率在短期内总体保持区间波动，并带有温和下行倾向，但中期波动性更大，潜在结果的分布范围更广。
劳动力市场状况仍是一个重要的平衡因素。更为停滞的就业背景和未来的财政拖累反对显著的再加速，而结构性劳动力约束和高财富家庭的收入韧性继续限制下行风险。对于保险公司而言，这强化了超越单一数据发布的重要性：增长保持稳定，但其持久性越来越依赖于劳动力参与、金融状况、消费者购买力和企业盈利广度之间的联系。
在短期周期之外，人工智能既是重要的支撑，也是不确定性的来源。人工智能投资正在促进增长、基础设施需求和信贷发行，但其收益仍然集中，更广泛的生产率提升可能需要时间才能扩散到整个经济。在短期内，与人工智能相关的资本支出也可能具有通胀效应，因为它推高了对电力、基础设施和其他投入品的需求。人工智能相关盈利、利润率、家庭财富的持久性，以及投资是否会扩大到相对狭窄的公司群体之外，将是经济前景的关键决定因素。
目前，我们认为这种背景支持一种选择性、收益导向的方法。有吸引力的整体收益率以及来自老龄化人口、养老金、保险公司和全球投资者的强劲结构性需求继续支撑固定收益。与此同时，紧张的估值、持续的通胀风险以及潜在的情景性波动，都主张强调韧性、流动性和证券选择，而不是依赖估值进一步扩张。
我们认为保险公司应保持适度建设性但选择性的风险姿态。经济增长保持稳定，信用基本面具有韧性，具有吸引力的综合收益率继续支持持有适度风险的理由。然而，利差收窄、美联储反应函数更难预测，以及增长和市场信心集中于人工智能，这些都不利于增加广泛的信用贝塔。
鉴于估值总体合理至偏紧，且利差进一步压缩的空间有限，我们继续倾向于持有收益、结构性保护和证券选择。强劲的技术性需求可能有助于支撑利差稳定，但收入可能仍然是比利差收紧带来的资本增值更可靠的回报来源。对于保险公司而言，我们认为这表明投资组合应围绕高质量收入、下行韧性、流动性以及波动加剧创造更具吸引力机会时的再投资灵活性来构建。
企业信用——我们偏好前端和中期投资级企业信用，同时对长期信用保持更为谨慎。在行业内部，我们继续偏好金融业，其次是公用事业，并对工业保持低配观点。实施应保持选择性，特别是在人工智能相关资本支出和预期发行量增加，提高了投资级基准中发行人集中度和行业平衡重要性的情况下。
证券化信用——证券化资产仍然是我们最具信心的机会之一。我们偏好优先担保贷款凭证（CLO）、高质量非机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（RMBS）、部分由优质借款人和设备敞口支持的特定资产支持证券（ABS），以及机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），这些资产具有吸引力的收入和结构性特征，有助于支持组合韧性。鉴于估值和底层贷款的再融资风险，我们对商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）保持谨慎。
应税市政债——我们继续将应税市政债视为有吸引力的高质量配置，其收入可与投资级企业信用相媲美，并得到强劲基本面的支持。供应有限可能限制实施，但在有单个机会时，该板块可能为保险投资组合提供有用的分散化。
高收益和银行贷款——我们对杠杆信用保持适度立场，并偏好高收益中质量较高的BB段。发行人分散度正在增加，这加强了对证券选择的需求。我们认为银行贷款继续提供有吸引力的收入，但再融资风险和人工智能相关的中断需要对利差最高的发行人保持谨慎。
在风险调整基础上，我们认为当前环境倾向于适度而非激进的风险姿态。信用基本面仍然具有支撑性，但利差收紧为增加广泛贝塔提供的补偿有限。因此，我们倾向于将主动风险集中在具有更强下行结构的高质量收益板块，同时保持流动性和再投资灵活性。
与此同时，我们仍对下行风险保持警惕。能源价格再度攀升可能削弱消费者购买力和企业利润率，同时使通胀前景更加复杂。增长、盈利和市场情绪对人工智能相关投资的依赖日益加深，如果资本支出、盈利预期或相关财富效应减弱，也会带来脆弱性。持续的通胀或美联储政策难以预测，可能引发前端收益率的额外波动，而私募信贷再融资条件和更广泛的信贷可得性仍是衡量金融压力的重要指标。
总体而言，我们认为保险投资组合应继续专注于通过证券化信贷、精选投资级品种、机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）以及高质量应税市政债券（如有）来最大化可靠收益。适度的久期缓冲和对流动性的持续重视，可能有助于在更广泛的结果范围内提供韧性。这一平衡姿势旨在支持账面收益率和资本效率，同时保留在波动带来更具吸引力估值时增加风险的灵活性。
CLO的监管和评级环境正在演变，应日益将高级、结构保守的分层与夹层风险区分开来（图1）。从2026年末报告开始，NAIC的新寿险风险资本框架将使高质量CLO更具资本效率，同时大幅提高低评级和较薄分层的资本要求。值得注意的是，资本处理将不再仅由信用评级驱动，分层厚度和结构保护也将影响所需资本。该框架适用于广泛银团和中等市场CLO，以及CDO和CBO，但对薄分层的额外费用特别适用于广泛银团CLO。
对于保险投资者，我们将此变化主要视为相对价值转变，而非广泛抛售或重大资产负债表压力的催化剂。大多数寿险公司已集中于较高质量的CLO分层，新规则应通过青睐AAA至A级债务和更大、更具防御性结构的分层来加强这一定位，同时对BBB和BB夹层敞口构成阻力。我们认为，这应支持对高级CLO的需求，投资者可以继续获得有吸引力的收入，并具有实质性信用增级和改善的资本效率。
与此同时，近期评级机构方法论的变化似乎是对CLO市场已实现表现的合理重新校准。这些机构正在纳入更长的表现历史、更新的违约和回收假设以及更细粒度的贷款层面分析。这支持了市场部分领域（尤其是高级分层）此前可能被评级过于保守的观点。然而，评级仍只是我们承销的一个输入。对次级分层更宽松的假设可能允许CLO结构采用额外杠杆，可能使BBB和BB债务在边际上吸引力降低，并增加CLO股权的风险状况。因此，我们继续强调抵押品质量、经理选择、附着点、分层厚度、回收假设和市场价值指标，而不是仅依赖评级。
我们的投资结论：我们保持高质量偏好，继续将单一A及更高评级CLO分层视为高度违约遥远，并相信强结构保护、有吸引力的收入和日益有利的资本处理的结合使高级CLO对保险组合特别有吸引力。相反，演变中的监管框架强化了在资本结构中较低层级选择的重要性，那里更大的杠杆、更薄的保护和更高的监管资本要求可能抵消额外利差。
尽管中东冲突带来影响，我们认为股票市场环境仍然向好，这得益于强劲的盈利修正和富有韧性的制造业周期。全球盈利和宏观经济周期的持续性，表明我们所见证的技术变革及其推动的资本支出浪潮具有深远影响。
除日本外，几乎所有市场中，今年迄今的股票涨幅大多由每股收益增长驱动。鉴于回报与盈利挂钩，估值已有所回落，我们预计估值不会成为阻力。
展望未来，我们认为市场表现将取决于盈利预期，我们估计未来12个月全球股票的盈利预期将为低至中等双位数增长，且有一定温和估值扩张的空间。我们认为，短期和中期对每股收益增长的高预期是合理的。除盈利外，资产负债表强劲，债务股本比较低，经营现金流对债务比率较高。
市场正在出现初步的广度扩大迹象。这包括人们日益认识到大型AI公司之下的多个层面，包括支持AI驱动的基础设施、芯片、能源及其他经济领域建设的企业。近期美国小盘股相对大盘股跑赢，以及超大规模企业相对工业、金融等板块跑输，也表明出现一定轮动。在这种轮动中，波动性有所上升，鉴于基本面稳健，我们认为由这些动态引发的任何技术性回调都将带来增加敞口的战术性机会。
我们已对美国股票转为中性观点。盈利增长依然强劲，估值看似合理。今年首次公开募股（IPO）的集中可能推动净发行量转正或中性。虽然我们预计市场将消化这些新发行，但我们认为净发行量的增长和更大的交易规模可能使股票供应在未来12个月成为市场的某种阻力。我们并未看到各类投资者群体整体头寸过度扩张的证据，但在某些领域（如杠杆ETF）存在过度热情的迹象。
在欧洲（除英国）和英国，我们认为盈利预期仍然过高，滞胀担忧更为突出。法国和德国受到中国竞争的影响，法国在2027总统大选前的政治不稳定风险可能打压市场情绪。但我们要强调，我们并不看空欧洲，并且存在积极惊喜的可能性，例如欧盟金融市场改革的进展或德国财政刺激的部署快于预期。
相对于欧洲，我们对新兴市场股票有更高确信度的观点。我们认为，亚洲新兴市场对AI供应链至关重要。此外，中国在中东冲突期间的韧性表现突出。
我们对日本持中性观点。市场继续受益于回购、高企且改善的净资产收益率（ROE）以及企业改革，但我们担心在估值根据某些指标已比一段时间以来更为拉伸的情况下，利率和汇率波动可能带来反作用。
我们维持对大宗商品的适度超配观点，这主要源于我们对原油观点的上调。我们认为，尽管中东出口恢复、需求增长以及供应响应（例如开发绕过霍尔木兹海峡的新管道）仍存在不确定性，但市场已经定价了中期供应增加。
在周期性需求方面，我们预计包括美国在内的许多国家将需要补充储备，因为冲突期间储备大幅消耗。然而，结构性需求也存在不确定性，尤其是来自中国的需求，因其侧重可再生能源。
在供应方面，OPEC成员国无视OPEC协议甚至考虑退出该组织的冲动（如阿联酋在5月所做的那样）可能受到石油盈亏平衡价格的限制，该价格远高于许多中东国家的生产成本。
因此，近期石油形势处于微妙平衡之中，我们认为基于基本面上行空间，适度超配的观点是合理的。尽管可能出现额外的缓解性反弹，但前景从当前水平来看似乎不对称，特别是中东冲突持久解决以及霍尔木兹海峡更全面恢复通航的前景仍不确定。
关于黄金，我们已从小幅超配转为中性观点。我们的信心已大幅下降，因为论点已从双引擎需求（央行和ETF需求）减弱为单一推动力（央行需求）。重申我们之前的观点，我们不将黄金视为通胀对冲工具，因为相关性较弱或不存在。主要的长期关系是与美元和实际收益率的负相关。我们看不到这两者出现显著上行空间，但美元基本面上重新看多可能构成风险。
所表达观点为作者在撰写时的观点。其他团队可能持有不同观点并做出不同的投资决策。您的投资价值可能高于或低于初始投资时的价值。虽然所使用的任何第三方数据被认为可靠，但其准确性不得到保证。仅适用于专业、机构或合格投资者。
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我们保险团队的成员分享了他们对经济的预期、投资思路以及来年的监管综述。
解决期限错配以应对亚洲保险公司的利率风险
保险策略师Max Davies和资产负债管理及监管资本策略师Francisco Sebastian解释了为什么在多样化的投资选择中进行分散投资对亚洲寿险公司变得越来越重要。
We expect a modest, near-trend US expansion supported by AI-related investment, infrastructure spending, and resilient corporate profits, but with growth increasingly concentrated and inflation risks elevated by energy prices, tariffs, and supply chain pressures.
We believe insurers should maintain a moderately constructive but selective risk posture, emphasizing dependable income, downside resilience, liquidity, and reinvestment flexibility rather than adding broad credit beta at tight spreads.
Within fixed income, we favor securitized credit, particularly senior CLOs, alongside selective front-end and intermediate investment-grade corporates, agency MBS, and high-quality taxable municipals; evolving NAIC rules have the potential to further improve the relative capital efficiency of senior CLO tranches.
Across other asset classes, we are neutral on US equities as strong earnings are balanced by rising issuance and pockets of exuberance, favor emerging market equities relative to Europe, hold a small overweight to oil following its sharp decline, and have moved to neutral on gold.
We continue to expect a modest, near-trend US economic expansion, with growth remaining resilient but increasingly concentrated. AI-related investment, infrastructure spending, resilient corporate profits, and generally supportive financial conditions continue to underpin activity, but consumption is uneven and earnings outside technology are less robust. This leaves the economy in a stable but more complicated position: We are not underwriting a broad reacceleration, but neither do we see clear evidence of imminent deterioration.
Inflation remains the principal macro uncertainty. Recent pressures have increasingly reflected supply-side forces, including energy, tariffs, and supply chains, which are more difficult for central banks to address without weighing on growth. Our base case assumes energy prices remain above last year’s levels but below their earlier peak, allowing purchasing power and broader economic activity to improve gradually. A renewed energy shock, however, could weigh on consumer spending and profit margins while putting upward pressure on bond yields.
Against this backdrop, our base case is that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on hold. The more important issue is not simply the next policy move, but how the Fed’s reaction function may be evolving. A greater emphasis on inflation credibility, less reliance on forward guidance, and a more judgment-based distinction between supply- and demand-driven inflation could make policy less predictable. We therefore expect US rates to remain broadly rangebound with a modest downward bias in the near term, but with greater volatility and a wider distribution of potential outcomes over the medium term.
Labor market conditions remain a meaningful counterbalance. A more stagnant employment backdrop and future fiscal drag argue against a significant reacceleration, while structural labor constraints and resilient income among higher-wealth households continue to limit downside risks. For insurers, this reinforces the importance of looking beyond individual data releases: Growth remains stable, but its durability increasingly depends on the links between labor participation, financial conditions, consumer purchasing power, and the breadth of corporate earnings.
Beyond the near-term cycle, AI remains both a meaningful support and a source of uncertainty. AI investment is contributing to growth, infrastructure demand, and credit issuance, but its benefits remain concentrated and the broader productivity gains may take time to spread across the economy. In the near term, AI-related capital spending may also be inflationary as it drives up demand for power, infrastructure, and other inputs. The durability of AI-related earnings, margins, and household wealth, and whether investment broadens beyond a relatively narrow group of companies, will be key determinants of the economic outlook.
For now, we think this backdrop supports a selective, income-oriented approach. Attractive all-in yields and strong structural demand from aging populations, pensions, insurers, and global investors remain supportive of fixed income. At the same time, tight valuations, persistent inflation risk, and the potential for episodic volatility argue for emphasizing resilience, liquidity, and security selection rather than relying on further valuation expansion.
We believe insurers should maintain a moderately constructive but selective risk posture. Economic growth remains stable, credit fundamentals are resilient, and attractive all-in yields continue to support the case for owning measured amounts of risk. However, tight spreads, a less predictable Fed reaction function, and the concentration of growth and market confidence around AI argue against adding broad credit beta.
With valuations generally fair to tight and limited scope for further spread compression, we continue to favor carry, structural protection, and security selection. Strong technical demand may help support spread stability, but income is likely to remain a more dependable source of return than capital appreciation from tighter spreads. For insurers, we think this argues for portfolios built around high-quality income, downside resilience, liquidity, and the flexibility to reinvest should volatility create more compelling opportunities.
Corporates — We favor front-end and intermediate investment-grade corporates while remaining more cautious on long-duration credit. Within sectors, we continue to prefer financials, followed by utilities, and we maintain an underweight view on industrials. Implementation should remain selective, particularly as AI-related capital spending and prospective issuance increase the importance of issuer concentration and sector balance within investment-grade benchmarks.
Securitized credit — Securitized assets remain among our highest-conviction opportunities. We favor senior CLOs, high-quality non-agency RMBS, select ABS with exposures backed by prime borrowers and equipment, and agency MBS, where attractive income and structural characteristics can support portfolio resilience. We remain cautious on CMBS given valuations and refinancing risk in the underlying loans.
Taxable municipals — We continue to view taxable municipals as an attractive high-quality allocation, offering income comparable to investment-grade corporates and supported by strong fundamentals. Limited supply may constrain implementation, but the sector may provide useful diversification for insurance portfolios when individual opportunities are available.
High yield and bank loans — We maintain a measured posture toward leveraged credit and prefer the higher-quality BB segment of high yield. Issuer dispersion is increasing, reinforcing the need for security selection. We think bank loans continue to offer attractive income, but refinancing risk and AI-related disruption warrant caution among the highest-spread issuers.
On a risk-adjusted basis, we believe the current environment favors a moderate rather than aggressive risk posture. Credit fundamentals remain supportive, but tight spreads provide limited compensation for adding broad beta. We therefore prefer concentrating active risk in higher-quality carry sectors with stronger downside structure, while preserving liquidity and reinvestment flexibility.
At the same time, we remain mindful of downside risks. A renewed rise in energy prices could weigh on consumer purchasing power and corporate margins while complicating the inflation outlook. The increasing dependence of growth, earnings, and market sentiment on AI-related investment also creates vulnerability if capital spending, earnings expectations, or the associated wealth effect weaken. Persistent inflation or a less predictable Fed could produce additional front-end volatility, while private credit refinancing conditions and broader credit availability remain important indicators of financial stress.
Overall, we believe insurance portfolios should remain focused on maximizing dependable income through securitized credit, selective investment-grade exposure, agency MBS, and high-quality taxable municipals where available. A modest duration cushion and a continued emphasis on liquidity may help provide resilience across a wider range of outcomes. This balanced posture is designed to support book yield and capital efficiency while retaining the flexibility to add risk if volatility produces more attractive valuations.
The regulatory and ratings environment for CLOs is evolving in a way that should increasingly differentiate senior, conservatively structured tranches from mezzanine risk (Figure 1). Beginning with year-end 2026 reporting, the NAIC’s new Life RBC framework will make high-quality CLOs more capital efficient while materially increasing capital requirements for lower-rated and thinner tranches. Notably, capital treatment will no longer be driven by credit rating alone as tranche thickness and structural protection will also influence the required capital. The framework applies across both broadly syndicated and middle-market CLOs, as well as CDOs and CBOs, although the additional charge for thin tranches applies specifically to broadly syndicated CLOs.
For insurance investors, we view the change primarily as a relative value shift rather than a catalyst for broad selling or significant balance sheet stress. Most life insurers are already concentrated in higher-quality CLO tranches, and the new rules should reinforce that positioning by favoring AAA through A rated debt and larger, more defensively structured tranches, while creating headwinds for BBB and BB mezzanine exposure. In our view, this should support demand for senior CLOs, where investors can continue to earn attractive income with substantial credit enhancement and improved capital efficiency.
At the same time, recent rating agency methodology changes appear to be a reasonable recalibration to the CLO market’s realized performance. The agencies are incorporating a longer performance history, updated default and recovery assumptions, and more granular loan-level analysis. This supports the view that portions of the market, particularly senior tranches, may previously have been rated too conservatively. However, ratings remain only one input to our underwriting. More permissive assumptions for subordinate tranches could allow CLO structures to employ additional leverage, potentially making BBB and BB debt less attractive at the margin and increasing the risk profile of CLO equity. We therefore continue to emphasize collateral quality, manager selection, attachment point, tranche thickness, recovery assumptions, and market value metrics rather than relying on the rating alone.
Our investment conclusion: We maintain a high-quality bias, continuing to view single A and higher-rated CLO tranches as highly default remote, and believe the combination of strong structural protection, attractive income, and increasingly favorable capital treatment makes senior CLOs particularly compelling for insurance portfolios. Conversely, the evolving regulatory framework reinforces the importance of selectivity lower in the capital structure, where greater leverage, thinner protection, and higher regulatory capital requirements may offset the additional spread.
Despite the effects of the Middle East conflict, we think conditions for equities have remained supportive, driven by strong earnings revisions and a resilient manufacturing cycle. The durability of the global earnings and macro cycle is a sign of the profound impact of the technological shift we’re witnessing and the capex wave it’s fueling.
In nearly every market except Japan, most of the year-to-date gains in equities have been driven by EPS growth. Given that returns have been tied to earnings, valuations have derated and we don’t expect them to be a headwind.
Looking ahead, we think the market's performance will come down to earnings expectations, which we estimate will be in the low- to mid-double digits for global equities over the coming 12 months, with some room for modest valuation expansion. In our view, high expectations for EPS growth over the short- and mid-term are justified. Beyond earnings, balance sheets are strong, with relatively low debt to equity and high operating cash flows to debt.
There are incipient signs of equity market broadening. This includes a growing awareness of the layers beneath the big AI names, including the companies supporting the AI-driven build-out of infrastructure, chips, energy, and other parts of the economy. The recent outperformance of US small caps relative to large caps and the underperformance of hyperscalers relative to areas such as industrials and financials are also indications of some rotation coming through. Amid this rotation, volatility has picked up, and any technical correction driven by these dynamics would, in our view, present a tactical opportunity to add exposure, given solid fundamentals.
We have moved to a neutral view on US equities. Earnings growth remains robust and valuations appear reasonable. The spate of IPOs will likely drive positive to neutral net issuance this year. While we expect the market to absorb this new issuance, we think the growth in net issuance and larger deal sizes could make equity supply something of a headwind for the market over the coming 12 months. We do not see evidence of stretched positioning in aggregate across a range of investor groups, but there are signs of exuberance in some areas, such as leveraged ETFs.
In Europe ex-UK and the UK, we think earnings expectations remain too high and stagflationary concerns are more relevant. France and Germany have been hurt by competition from China, and risks related to political instability in France ahead of the 2027 presidential election could weigh on sentiment. We would stress, however, that we are not negative on Europe and there is potential for positive surprises, such as progress on financial markets reform in the European Union or quicker-than-expected deployment of fiscal stimulus in Germany.
Relative to Europe, we have a higher-conviction view on EM equities. In our view, emerging markets in Asia are critical to the AI supply chain. In addition, China’s resilience during the Middle East conflict has stood out.
We are neutral on Japan. The market continues to benefit from buybacks, high/improving return on equity (ROE), and corporate reforms, but we are concerned about the potential for blowback from rate and currency volatility at a time when valuations are more stretched, based on some metrics, than they have been for some time.
We maintain a modest overweight view on commodities, driven by our upgraded stance on oil. We believe the market is already pricing in a medium-term increase in supply despite lingering uncertainties about the resumption of exports from the Middle East, demand growth, and the supply response (e.g., the development of new pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).
On the cyclical demand side, we anticipate that many countries, including the US, will need to replenish their reserves given the large drawdowns during the conflict. However, structural demand also carries uncertainties, particularly from China given its focus on renewables.
On the supply side, the urge by OPEC member nations to flout OPEC agreements or even consider exiting the organization as the UAE did in May could be limited by breakeven oil prices, which are much higher than the cost of production in many Middle Eastern countries.
The near‑term setup for oil is therefore finely balanced, and we think our modest overweight view is warranted based on fundamental upside. While there could be an additional relief rally, the outlook appears asymmetric from here, particularly as prospects for an enduring resolution to the Middle East conflict and a fuller resumption of flows in the Strait of Hormuz remain in flux.
On gold, we have moved from our small overweight view to a neutral view. Our conviction has fallen materially, as the thesis has weakened from a two‑engine demand story (central bank and ETF demand) to a single propeller (central bank demand). To reiterate a point we made previously, we don’t view gold as an inflation hedge, as correlations are weak or nonexistent. The primary long-term relationships are negative correlations to the US dollar and real yields. We don’t see significant upside emerging in either, but a fundamental reengagement with a bull case in the dollar could be a risk.
The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional or accredited investors only.
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