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渣打银行 · Oli Fernandes · 2026/08/27

债券市场提出问题;美元走软即是答案

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债券市场提出问题;美元走软即是答案

随着债券市场对不断上升的政府债务和货币政策不确定性提出质疑,美元可能充当压力释放阀。

拉贾特·巴塔查里亚 高级投资策略师

在每一个债务周期中,都有一个时刻,债券市场不再倾听,而是开始发声。我们似乎已经达到了这个时刻。美国30年期国债收益率已突破周期性新高——达到近二十年来的最高水平——而且值得注意的是,这一突破发生在短期收益率保持稳定、近期美联储预期更趋偏鸽派而非偏鹰派的时期。这不是增长的故事。这是风险溢价的故事。

债券市场的走势是结构性的。长端收益率的上升反映了期限溢价的扩大,这在一定程度上是由于对长期经济前景的不确定性增加、财政担忧以及美联储刻意变得更加不透明。技术性解释,包括为人工智能数据中心融资的债券发行激增导致的挤出效应,以及流动性恶化,只是次要驱动因素,因为公司信用利差仅小幅扩大。

这对货币投资者而言之所以重要,是因为一个简单的会计恒等式:如果债券持有人要求的补偿无法通过收益率体现,那么它将通过其他渠道体现。这个其他渠道就是美元的汇率。

三个结构性螺丝,都在转动

推高债券收益率的主要结构性因素是财政赤字。过去十年,美国公共债务翻了一番,达到40万亿美元。在主要经济体中,美国的债务与GDP之比为123%,仅低于日本和意大利。由于有效名义借贷成本接近4%,利息支出在政府支出中已升至第三位,仅次于医疗和社会保障支出,因此亟需进行重大财政紧缩。但任何政府都不会这样做。剩下的唯一现实路径是促进增长并将实际利率推至极低水平,这意味着金融抑制和货币贬值。

与此同时,财政赤字再次恶化:最高法院裁决后关税收入的损失,抵消了企业税收收入下降的弥补作用,导致当前财年头10个月的财政赤字与上一财年全年持平。利息支出增速现已超过GDP增速。

第二个结构性驱动因素可以说是民粹主义。这不再是暂时的选举周期风险;而是发达市场政治中一个长期的、结构性的固有特征。在欧洲,随着政治风险从法国和英国扩展到德国和意大利,期限溢价正在扩大。在美国,五分之四的选民希望政府进行实质性变革。甚至人工智能建设——美国例外主义的真正引擎——也因数据中心问题面临两党民粹主义的反对。这种政策不确定性正是期限溢价定价所要反映的。

第三,美联储。美联储主席凯文·沃什不愿明确其反应函数——即他愿意容忍高于2%目标通胀的时间有多长——这提高了风险溢价并推高了长期收益率。强硬言论与政策行动不匹配,导致投资者质疑其加息的决心,而这种模糊性开始对美元构成压力。如果沃什能更坦率地表达自己的观点,部分溢价可能会消退。在那之前,溢价将不断累积。

美元作为泄压阀

在这种结构性背景下,市场应如何反应?美国财政部意外决定将长期债券回购翻倍,意在限制收益率。但由于没有流动性压力的证据,且政府仍实施顺周期财政政策,市场将其解读为试图通过行政手段压制长期收益率的价格——这无异于变相金融压制。

在期限溢价被人为压缩的情况下,留给投资者的唯一泄压阀便是美元,而美元也随之走弱。债券市场传递的信息是直白的:如果你们实施顺周期财政政策,不展现整合意愿,拖延加息并削弱加息本身的必要性,我们将要求补偿。如果你们在收益率上拒绝给予补偿,我们将在汇率上索取。

其机制助长了这一趋势。通胀调整后的收益率上升并未支撑美元,因为上升反映的是更宽的期限溢价,而非更高的核心实际收益率。期限溢价上升对汇率是利空的;而核心实际收益率上升则预示经济增长改善,对汇率是利多的。然而,核心实际收益率已有所回落。财政部解决这一问题的能力微乎其微;只有美联储的资产负债表才能真正限制收益率,而沃什一直寻求缩小其规模。

是什么在支撑局面

结果很可能是美元温和而非剧烈地走弱。为何是“温和”?原因在于人工智能(AI)热潮。美元尚未对发达市场货币大幅贬值,因为在AI热潮的推动下,外国投资者对美国股票的净购买额激增,十二个月内接近900亿美元,这为美国1万亿美元的经常账户赤字提供了融资。因此,AI驱动的股市上涨的可持续性,对于预期中美元贬值步伐至关重要。

日本消除了另一个支撑

美元走势的第二个驱动因素可能在于东京。日本的长期通胀预期终于达到2%,服务业销售价格通胀为2014,以来最强,且日本央行的反应函数似乎已经改变,至少有一位委员认为焦点已从提升通胀至目标转向防止通胀超调。9月日本央行加息现在看来可能性较大,终端利率可能接近2%。这提高了长期债券收益率的全球锚定水平,并侵蚀了支撑日元套利交易的利率差异,该交易一直支撑美元资产。日元兑美元在多项指标上显著低估,看起来像一个上紧的弹簧。

亚洲将从美元走软中受益

美元压力释放必然流向某处,而新兴市场(EM)是自然的承接者。新兴市场跑赢大盘的条件——外部基本面强劲、风险情绪良好、波动率受控——大体上正在得到满足,而美元走弱应有利于全球其他地区。这支持非美国债券,尤其是新兴市场债务。亚洲除日本外,拥有经常账户盈余支撑的货币,且与人工智能供应链关联度最高,在股票市场中看起来最具优势,其中中国和台湾股市是我们的首选。

债市正在提出问题。美元走软即是答案。亚洲将从中受益。

完整英文原文

As bond markets challenge rising government debt and monetary policy uncertainty, the US dollar is likely to act as the pressure release valve.

Rajat Bhattacharya Senior Investment Strategist

There is a moment in every debt cycle when the bond market stops listening and starts talking. We appear to have reached it. The US 30-year government bond yield has broken out to a new cyclical high – its highest level in almost two decades – and, tellingly, it did so during a period of stability in short-maturity yields and while near-term Fed expectations were drifting more dovish, not less. That is not a growth story. That is a risk-premium story.

The moves in the bond market are structural. The rise in long-end yields reflects a widening term premium, driven by some combination of greater uncertainty about the long-run economic outlook, fiscal concerns, and a US Federal Reserve that has become deliberately more opaque. Technical explanations, including crowding out from the surge in bond issuance financing AI datacentres, and deteriorating liquidity, are minor drivers as corporate spreads have widened only modestly.

What makes this consequential for currency investors is a simple accounting identity: if the compensation demanded by bondholders cannot be expressed in yields, it will be expressed somewhere else. That somewhere else is the US dollar’s exchange rate.

Three structural screws, all turning

The primary structural driver of higher bond yields is the fiscal deficit. US public debt has doubled over the past decade to USD 40tn. Among major economies, the US debt-to-GDP ratio of 123% is only exceeded by Japan and Italy. With effective nominal borrowing costs near 4% and interest payments on the debt now ranking third among government spending – after healthcare and social security payments – a significant fiscal tightening is urgently needed. No administration will deliver that. The only realistic path left is to boost growth and drive real rates very low, which means financial repression and currency depreciation.

Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit is deteriorating again: the loss of tariff revenue following the Supreme Court decision has stripped away the offset to falling corporate tax receipts, leaving the fiscal deficit in the first 10 months of the current financial year at the same level as the entire year before. Interest payments are now growing faster than GDP.

The second structural driver is arguably populism. This is no longer a temporary election-cycle risk; it is a perennial, structurally embedded feature of Developed Market politics. In Europe, term premia are widening as political risk expands beyond France and the UK into Germany and Italy. In the US, four out of five voters want substantial change in government. And even the AI buildout – the one genuine engine of US exceptionalism – now faces bipartisan populist pushback over data centres. Policy uncertainty of this kind is precisely what a term premium is designed to price.

Third, the Fed. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwillingness to articulate his reaction function – how long he is willing to tolerate above 2% target inflation – has raised risk premia and lifted long-term yields. Tough rhetoric unmatched by policy action has led investors to question his resolve to hike, and that ambiguity is starting to weigh on the dollar. If Warsh is more forthcoming with his views, some of this premium could unwind. Until then, it accumulates.

Dollar as the release valve

How should the markets react against this structural backdrop? The Treasury’s surprise decision to double buybacks of long-term bonds was intended to cap yields. But with no evidence of liquidity stress, and the government still operating a procyclical fiscal policy, the market read it as an attempt to suppress the price of long-term yields by fiat – financial repression in all but name.

With term premia artificially compressed, the only release valve left for investors was the dollar, which duly weakened. The message from the bond market is blunt: if you run procyclical fiscal policy, show no desire to consolidate, drag your feet on hiking and undermine the very idea of doing so, we will require compensation. If you deny that compensation in yield, we will take it in the currency.

The mechanics reinforce this. Rising inflation-adjusted yields have not supported the dollar because the uptick reflects a wider term premium, not higher core real yields. A rising term premium is bearish for the exchange rate; rising core real yields, signalling better growth, would be bullish. However, core real yields have rolled over. The Treasury’s ability to fix this is minimal; only the Fed’s balance sheet could genuinely cap yields, and Warsh has consistently sought a smaller one.

What is holding the line

The result is likely a modestly, not violently, bearish dollar. Why ‘modestly’? The reason is the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The greenback has not yet depreciated materially against developed-market currencies because surging foreign net purchases of US equities, approaching USD 900bn over twelve months and driven by the AI boom, have financed a USD 1trn current account deficit. Thus, the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market rally is critical for the pace of the expected US dollar depreciation.

Japan removes the other support

The second driver of the dollar’s path likely resides in Tokyo. Japanese long-term inflation expectations have finally reached 2%, services selling-price inflation is the strongest since 2014, and the BoJ’s reaction function appears to have changed, with at least one member arguing the focus has shifted from lifting inflation to target to preventing an overshoot. A September BoJ rate hike now looks likely, with a terminal rate plausibly near 2%. That raises the global anchor for long-end bond yields and erodes the rate differential underpinning yen-funded carry trade that has supported dollar assets. The yen, significantly undervalued against the dollar on several measures, looks like a loaded spring.

Asia to benefit from a softer dollar

Released dollar pressure has to land somewhere, and Emerging Markets (EM) are the natural recipients. Conditions for EM outperformance – strong external fundamentals, decent risk sentiment, contained volatility – are broadly being met, and a weaker dollar should benefit the rest of the world. This argues for non-US bonds, especially EM debt. Asia ex-Japan, home to the current-account-surplus backed currencies most exposed to the AI supply chain, looks best placed among equity markets, with China and Taiwan equities our top preferences.

The bond market is asking questions. A softer dollar is the answer. Asia stands to benefit.

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In relation to any collective investment schemes referred to in this document, this document is for general information purposes only and is not an offering document or prospectus (as defined in the SFA). This document is not, nor is it intended to be (i) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any capital markets product; or (ii) an advertisement of an offer or intended offer of any capital markets product. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$75,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Taiwan: Standard Chartered Bank (“SCB”) or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SCB or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SCB or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SCB or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SCB or SCB (Taiwan). SCB and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SCB or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SCB or SCB (Taiwan). SCB, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SCB or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered Bank UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.
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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 美国长期国债收益率创出周期性新高,尽管短期收益率稳定且美联储预期偏鸽,表明这是风险溢价故事而非增长故事。
  • 期限溢价上升对美元不利;核心实际收益率已回落,因此美元预计温和走弱。
  • AI繁荣带来的外国对美国股票购买接近9000亿美元,为经常账户赤字融资,减缓了美元贬值。
  • 日本央行可能在9月加息,终端利率或接近2%,推高全球长期收益率并减少对美元的套利交易支持。
  • 美元走软有利于新兴市场资产,青睐新兴市场债券和亚洲(除日本)股票,其中中国和台湾是首选。
  • 美国财政部回购被视为金融压抑,限制收益率并迫使调整通过汇率实现。
  • 美联储主席沃什对反应函数不透明推高了期限溢价;如果他更加坦诚,部分溢价可能回吐。
  • 财政赤字恶化和债务服务成本上升使得货币贬值可能成为金融压抑的途径。
风险
  • 如果AI驱动的股市反弹受阻,美元贬值可能更快。
  • 如果美联储主席沃什变得更加透明,部分期限溢价可能回吐,支撑美元。
  • 如果财政部的回购计划被视为可信,压制收益率可能减少对美元的压力。
  • 意外的美联储加息可能提振美元。
  • 全球避险事件可能作为避险货币推升美元。