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汇丰 · 2026/08/18

如果我们都安装太阳能电池板和电动车辆会怎样？

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如果我们都安装太阳能电池板和电动车辆会怎样？

越来越多的家庭正在安装家用太阳能和电动车辆……

……这将使他们能够在日常基础上节省开支……

……并将从我们的宏观数据中移除交易

在我们‘打破数据’系列的最新一期中，该系列关注那些展示我们九个主题如何塑造未来的有趣数据，我们着眼于同时发生的两大能源趋势——太阳能和电动汽车的快速普及——自伊朗战争开始以来，这两大趋势都出现了加速的理由。

太阳能的采用已经在迅速增长。2023年，全球太阳能装机容量同比增长了50%，现在的规模是十年前的五倍。虽然大部分能源来自工业太阳能电站，但我们看到家庭屋顶太阳能的增长也相当显著，英国政府数据显示，2024年初，全国太阳能装置中有一半安装在家庭屋顶上——而今年年初的同比增长超过了20%。

家庭采用率仍然较低——在英国，6%的家庭拥有太阳能，而在美国，大约有6%的独栋住宅。但随着这些数字上升（就像在德国那样，现在大约有30%的家庭拥有太阳能），这将使家庭在能源账单上节省50%或更多，并因为太阳能使用时没有能源被出售，从而在我们的经济数据中移除一项交易。

电动汽车的采用也继续快速增长。2023年全球范围内，24%的售出汽车是电动的，并且这一比例还在继续上升，这意味着今天，全球道路上的汽车中有5%是电动的，但到2040年，这一比例可能达到50%。从汽油车到电动汽车的转变对消费者支出数据很重要，因为：a)汽油消费将会下降，取而代之的是充电（其中一部分将在家庭用电中，一部分在路边充电，统计局尚未完全捕捉到这些）；b)电动汽车的每英里成本大约是汽油车的25%。

这两个因素加在一起可能对家庭支出产生有趣的影响。如果某个个体从汽油车换成电动汽车并在屋顶安装太阳能，他们的年度支出很容易下降20%，所有其他因素保持不变。随着普及率的提高，宏观影响将会增大。

当然，太阳能装置和新车会有前期成本，但就消费者支出的重复影响而言，这可能意义重大——无论是对于家庭在能源和燃料购买上的已捕捉数据，还是对于这些节省最终流向的任何其他经济部门。

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完整英文原文

More households are getting domestic solar and EVs…

…which will save them money on an ongoing basis…

…and remove transactions from our macro data

In the latest edition of our 'Breaking the data' series, which focuses on interesting data that show how our Nine Themes are shaping the future, we look at two big trends in energy that are happening at once – the rapid adoption of solar power and electric vehicles – both of which have seen reason to accelerate since the start of the war in Iran.

Solar power adoption was already rising quickly. In 2025, global solar capacity grew by 27% y-o-y, and is now 10x where it was a decade ago. But whilst most of that energy comes from industrial solar farms, we’re also seeing a pretty sharp rise in household rooftop solar, with UK government data suggesting that half of national solar installations in early 2026 were on the roofs of homes – and they were up more than 150% y-o-y at the start of this year.

Household adoption is still low – in the UK, 6% of homes have solar power, and in the US, it’s roughly 6-7% of single-family homes. But as these numbers rise (as they have in Germany, where roughly 10% of households now have solar power), this will see households save 40% or more on their energy bills and remove a transaction from our economic data, as no energy is being sold when solar power is in use.

Electric vehicle adoption continues to rise quickly too. In 2025, globally, 25% of cars sold were electric, and this continues to rise, meaning that today, 5% of cars on the road globally are electric, but this could reach 20% by 2035. The shift from petrol to electric cars is important for consumer spending data because: a) petrol consumption will fall, replaced by charging (some of which will be in household electricity, some in roadside charging, which isn’t yet fully captured by statistics agencies); and b) the cost per mile of an EV is roughly 25-30% that of a petrol car.

These two elements together could have an interesting impact on household spending. If a given individual swaps from a petrol to an electric car and puts solar on their roof, their year-to-year expenditure could easily fall by 3%, all else being equal. As adoption rises, the macro implications will grow.

Of course, there would be upfront costs of solar installations and new vehicles, but in terms of repeated impact on consumer outlays, this could be significant – both for the captured data on energy and fuel purchases by households and any other sectors of the economy where these savings end up.

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关键论点
  • 2025年全球太阳能装机容量同比增长27%，英国2026年初户用屋顶装机量同比猛增超150%。
  • 2025年电动车占全球汽车销量的25%，到2035年电动车可能占全球汽车保有量的20%。
  • 安装太阳能和电动车的家庭可节省40%以上的能源账单，且电动车每英里成本仅为汽油车的25-30%。
  • 向太阳能和电动车的转变会从宏观数据中移除传统能源交易，影响消费支出的统计。
  • 太阳能与电动车的组合采用可能使家庭年支出同比减少约3%（在其他条件不变的情况下）。
风险
  • 太阳能安装和电动车的初始成本可能阻碍普及。
  • 如果政府政策变化，普及速度可能慢于预期。
  • 统计机构可能调整以捕捉新交易，从而改变宏观影响。