宏观面：通胀数据走强，强化了今年再次加息的理由。
股市：美国股市在英伟达业绩超预期前持平，欧洲股市持稳，亚洲芯片股因英伟达强化人工智能需求而上涨。
数字资产：加密货币横盘整理，矿商股遭大幅抛售，而基金资金流入持续增加。
大宗商品：由于俄罗斯-乌克兰紧张局势，小麦触及三年高位；油价波动，金价盘整。
固定收益：周三美国和欧洲收益率回升。
外汇：在美联储主席沃什周五杰克逊霍尔讲话前，波动率极低。瑞郎因套利交易吸引力再次走弱。
自动质量提示本研报仍可阅读，但 AI 分析或译文低于优选质量阈值，已进入改进队列。重要判断请同时核对官网原文。
完整研报正文
完整中文译文
市场快讯 - 英伟达因强劲盈利和增长前景而上涨
市场驱动因素与催化剂
宏观
通胀略高于预期。7月PCE物价指数环比上升0.2%，此前6月下降0.1%，高于0.1%的预测，其中服务业价格上涨0.3%，商品价格下跌0.1%。核心PCE也上涨0.2%。同比来看，总体通胀率维持在3.7%（预期为下降至3.6%），核心通胀率为3.3%。货币市场对此反应为完全定价美联储12月加息。
经济活动数据强于增长数据。个人支出增长0.2%，而预测为0.1%，但低于6月的0.3%，实际值基本持平。耐用品订单增长1.1%，为4月以来最强，且为预测的两倍，主要由交通运输带动，资本货物、金属和机械亦有所增长；除运输外订单增长0.4%，核心资本货物资本开支指标增长0.2%。第二季度GDP增长率确认为1.5%（年化），低于第一季度的2.1%。
霍尔木兹海峡事件又向解决迈进了一步。伊朗和阿曼同意共享海峡水域及收入的条款，但德黑兰表示，重新开放航道需要的不止这项协议。特朗普总统表示周二有10百万桶石油通过，并重申水雷已被清除。美国对伊朗的新制裁力度低于预期。
小麦价格触及三年高位，因市场担忧俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争可能升级，并进一步扰乱该地区的供应，该地区供应全球小麦出口量的25%以上，以及大量大麦、玉米和葵花籽油，从而在能源价格上涨引发的通胀之上，增加另一轮食品通胀的风险。
更多内容请见我们的宏观分析及宏观经济新闻。
宏观日历要点（格林威治时间）
0600 – 德国9月GfK消费者信心指数
1230 – 美国7月商品贸易帐初值
1700 – 美国标售44十亿美元7年期国债
杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会今天开始，持续至周六，主席凯文·沃什将于明天发表首次主旨演讲。本次研讨会的主题是“金融创新：对支付和政策的启示”——预计将就稳定币在金融体系基础设施中的潜在用途提出看法，但市场更关注美联储的利率政策意图。
财报事件
周四：Marvell Technology、Autodesk、Workday、Rubrik、Pernod Ricard
所有宏观、财报和股息事件请查看盛宝银行的日历。
股票
美国：标普500指数几乎持平，道琼斯指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%，因美国通胀数据走高提振美债收益率，市场关注英伟达财报。英伟达在常规交易中下跌1.6%，盘后大涨超过5%，因季度营收翻倍，管理层预计第三季度销售额约为108亿美元，并预测2028财年营收增长约70%。Salesforce盘后大涨近13%，因上调年度展望并扩大与Anthropic的合作。市场关注英伟达的乐观情绪能否带动人工智能板块整体走强，以及美联储主席沃什周五在杰克逊霍尔的讲话。CrowdStrike盘后上涨约26%，因盈利超预期，营收同比增长，全年指引上调至5.99亿至6.01亿美元。
欧洲：斯托克600指数收盘持平，DAX指数上涨0.3%，CAC40指数上涨0.4%，富时100指数下跌0.2%，投资者在油价走软与科技和医疗板块谨慎情绪之间权衡。Ambu下跌3%，因下调增长展望并遭Nordea下调评级，而Ferrovial下跌2.3%，因瑞银下调评级，担忧其美国田纳西收费公路项目的回报。整体市场保持观望，英伟达强劲展望为今日欧洲半导体和科技板块带来新的考验。
亚洲：亚洲股市在英伟达带动的早盘上涨后转为分化。韩国综合指数午盘上涨约1.2%，早盘一度高开1.6%，日本日经指数下跌0.4%，香港恒生指数下跌0.2%，韩国央行连续第二次加息令韩国股市承压。此前，SK海力士上涨约3.2%，三星电子上涨2.1%，因英伟达财报强化了人工智能相关内存芯片需求强劲的预期。韩国央行将政策利率上调25个基点至3.0%，市场关注点从财报利好转向通胀和借贷成本。
更多内容参见我们的股票交易 - 股票市场分析与新闻
数字资产
加密货币价格小幅波动，上市矿商跌幅居前。IREN下跌2.5%，今晚公布财报，Marathon下跌1.8%，CleanSpark下跌3.9%，Riot下跌2.7%，Coinbase和Strategy均下跌2.1%，Circle下跌3.2%。Deribit的隐含波动率指标回落至40.24。
美国现货比特币基金连续第七个交易日净流入，周二流入3.03亿美元。这使得8月累计流入达2.26亿美元，今年累计净流出减少逾一半，至6000万美元。
大宗商品
农产品：芝加哥小麦期货触及三年高位，因市场担心俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争可能进一步升级，并扰乱占全球小麦出口超过25%的地区的供应。据乌克兰农业部称，乌克兰本季度的农业出口与之前的估计相比已经面临超过50%的下降。与此同时，俄罗斯8月份的小麦出口量预计将比去年同期下降超过50%。总体而言，这些事态发展正在挤压农民的现金流，可能影响种植和明年的产量。
原油：周三原油价格强劲反弹，布伦特原油从低于每桶86美元的水平回升至接近每桶90美元，因有报道称俄罗斯可能在乌克兰升级局势，随后因关于霍尔木兹海峡航运的伊朗收入分成协议的消息而回落。由于中东供应前景再度乐观，油价较周一峰值下跌约8%，而美国库存数据显示成品油压力持续，汽油库存降至2012年以来季节性最低水平，柴油库存创纪录低点，正值冬季需求旺季来临前。
黄金：上周飙升后，金价继续盘整，目前价格在每盎司4,600,美元下方找到支撑，在4,555美元水平之前，这是最新一轮涨势的0.382斐波那契回撤位。市场关注点转向美联储主席凯文·沃什明天在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话，市场期待关于利率前景以及政策制定者如何看待通胀、增长和金融条件之间平衡的进一步指引。在最新通胀数据公布后，市场目前已经完全定价了12月加息25个基点。
更多内容请参见我们的《大宗商品新闻、分析与评论》
固定收益
周三国债再度承压，部分逆转了前一日的走势。收益率在7月PCE通胀数据（核心PCE符合预期，但总体PCE略高于预期，如上所述）以及修正后的第二季度GDP核心价格指数（年化率从3.4%上调至3.6%）公布前后跳升。基准2年期国债收益率在盘中跌破4.17%后回升至4.21%上方，而基准10年期国债逆转了周二收益率下跌的较小部分，在跌至4.613%低点后收于接近4.65%的水平。
欧洲债券收益率周三大幅反弹，部分逆转了周二因原油价格暴跌而引发的收益率急剧下跌。德国基准10年期国债在周三开盘时一度跌至3.185%，随后回升至3.23%上方收盘。
外汇
货币波动性极低，部分原因在于美联储政策方向的不确定性、其他资产类别的低波动性，以及交易员可能因担心官方干预而避免交易日元。在G10货币中，十种货币中有九种（挪威克朗除外，其与石油市场波动相关）的平均日交易区间处于过去1,000个交易日的底部20%，欧元和美元货币对的交易区间分别处于底部5%和7%。
日元小幅走弱，自7月底和8月初官方大规模干预以来，美元兑日元汇率在近期区间内交投于较弱一侧。如果全球债券收益率再次走高且美元同样走强，交易员将关注该区间的159.78高点，而当前汇率为159.32。
瑞士法郎再次走弱，因为随着波动性保持低位、收益率上升以及瑞士央行目前维持0%政策利率，套利交易（以瑞郎作为融资货币）的吸引力回归。欧元兑瑞郎已从上周的0.9310低点反弹，至周四早间报0.9389。
更多外汇内容，请参阅我们的专门板块：外汇交易新闻与分析
完整英文原文
Market drivers and catalysts
Macro: A firmer inflation print hardened the case for another rate rise this year.
Equities: US stocks were flat before Nvidia’s beat, Europe was steady, Asian chip shares rallied as Nvidia reinforced artificial intelligence demand.
Digital Assets: Coins drifted and the miners were sold hard while fund inflows kept building.
Commodities: Wheat hits three-year high on Russia-Ukraine tensions; oil gyrates and gold consolidates.
Fixed Income: US and European yields rebounded Wednesday.
Currencies: Very muted volatility ahead of Fed Chair Warsh Jackson Hole speech Friday. CHF weak again on carry trade appeal.
Macro
Inflation came in a shade warmer than expected. The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month after a 0.1% fall in June, above the 0.1% forecast, with services prices up 0.3% and goods 0.1% lower. Core PCE also rose 0.2%. Year-on-year the headline rate held at 3.7% (versus expectations for a dip to 3.6%) and core at 3.3%. Money markets responded by moving to fully price a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The activity data was firmer than the growth print. Personal spending rose 0.2% against a 0.1% forecast, though down from 0.3% in June and roughly flat in real terms. Durable goods orders rose 1.1%, the strongest since April and double the forecast, led by transportation with gains in capital goods, metals and machinery; ex-transport orders rose 0.4% and the core capital goods capex proxy 0.2%. Second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at a 1.5% annualised rate, down from 2.1%.
The Strait of Hormuz story moved another step toward resolution. Iran and Oman agreed terms for sharing the waters and the revenues of the strait, though Tehran said reopening the waterway requires more than this deal. President Trump said 10 million barrels moved through on Tuesday and repeated that the mines have been cleared. New US sanctions on Iran landed milder than feared.
Wheat prices hit a three-year high as concerns grow the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate and further disrupt supplies from a region that supplies more than 25% of global wheat exports, as well as large amounts of barley, corn and sunflower oil, raising the risk of another round of food inflation on top of the one caused by higher energy prices.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0600 – Germany September GfK Consumer Sentiment
1230 – US July Advanced Goods Trade Balance
1700 – US to Sell USD 44 billion 7-year Notes
The Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers starts today and runs through Saturday, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote tomorrow. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.
Earnings events
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 finished little changed, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1% as firmer US inflation lifted Treasury yields ahead of Nvidia’s results. Nvidia fell 1.6% in regular trading before jumping over 5% after hours as quarterly revenue more than doubled and management guided third-quarter sales to about $108 billion, while forecasting roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028. Salesforce surged almost 13% after hours after raising its annual outlook and expanding its Anthropic partnership through Claudeforce. Attention shifted to whether Nvidia’s optimism could lift artificial intelligence shares more broadly and to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. CrowdStrike surged almost 10% after hours after beating earnings expectations, with revenue up 26% year on year and full-year guidance raised to $5.99–6.01 billion.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished flat, while the DAX gained 0.1%, the CAC 40 rose 0.3% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as investors balanced softer oil prices against caution in technology and healthcare. Ambu dropped 15.8% after cutting its growth outlook and receiving a Nordea downgrade, while Ferrovial fell 5.0% after UBS downgraded the shares on concerns about returns from its planned Tennessee toll-road project. The broader market remained in wait-and-see mode, with Nvidia’s stronger outlook providing a fresh test for Europe’s semiconductor and technology shares today.
Asia: Asian equities turned mixed after an early Nvidia-led surge. South Korea’s Kospi was up around 1% by midday after opening 2.8% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4% as the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate hike cooled the Korean rally. Earlier, SK Hynix gained around 3% and Samsung Electronics rose 2.3% as Nvidia’s results reinforced expectations for strong artificial intelligence-related memory demand. The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, shifting attention from the earnings boost back toward inflation and borrowing costs.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News
Digital Assets
The coins drifted and the listed miners took the brunt. IREN fell 6.23% ahead of its results tonight, Marathon 5.16%, CleanSpark 4.47% and Riot 3.24%, while Coinbase and Strategy both fell 2.87% and Circle 2.29%. Deribit's implied volatility gauge eased to 40.24.
US spot bitcoin funds extended their inflow run to a seventh session, drawing USD 314 million on Tuesday. That takes August to USD 3.03 billion and has more than halved the year's cumulative net outflows, to USD 2.26 billion.
Commodities
Agriculture: Wheat futures in Chicago hit a three-year high as concerns grow that the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate further and disrupt supplies from a region that accounts for more than 25% of global wheat exports. Ukraine is already facing a drop of more than 50% in agricultural exports this season compared with previous estimates, according to its agriculture ministry. Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments are expected to fall by more than 50% in August from a year earlier. Overall, these developments are squeezing farmer cash flow, potentially affecting planting and next year’s production.
Oil: Crude prices rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with Brent rising from below USD 86 to near USD 90 on reports of a potential Russian escalation in Ukraine, before reversing on news of an Iranian revenue-sharing agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are down around 8% from Monday’s peak amid renewed Middle East supply optimism, while US inventory data highlighted continued stress in refined products, with gasoline stocks falling to their lowest seasonal level since 2012 and diesel inventories to a record low, just ahead of the winter demand season.
Gold: Bullion continues to consolidate following last week’s surge, with prices so far finding support below USD 4,600, ahead of the USD 4,555 level, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow, with markets looking for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions. Following the latest inflation print, one full 25-basis-point hike is now priced by December.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary
Fixed Income
Treasuries came back under pressure on Wednesday, reversing part of the prior day’s move. A jump in yields occurred around the release of the July PCE inflation data (core PCE as expected but headline PCE data a bit hotter than expected as noted above) and the release of the revised GDP core price index for Q2, which was revised higher to an annualized rate of 3.6% from 3.4%. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.21% after trading below 4.17% intraday, while the benchmark 10-year reversed less of Tuesday’s drop in yields, ending the day near 4.65% after dipping as low as 4.613%.
Europe’s bond yields rebounded sharply Wednesday, reversing more of Tuesday’s sharp drop in yields that was apparently prompted by the plunge in crude oil prices. The benchmark German 10-year Bund dropped as low as 3.185% near the open of trading Wednesday, only to close back above 3.23%.
Currencies
Currency volatility is extremely muted, in part driven by uncertainty surrounding Fed policy direction, low volatility in other asset classes, and perhaps traders steering clear of trading the Japanese yen on fears of official intervention. Across the G10 currencies, the average daily trading ranges for nine of the ten (NOK is the exception, linked to oil market volatility) are in the bottom 20% for the last 1,000 trading days, with EUR and USD pairs in the bottom 5% and 7% of trading ranges, respectively.
The Japanese yen weakened slightly, trading toward the weaker side of the recent range in USDJPY since the massive wave of official intervention back in late July and the beginning of August. Traders will eye the 159.78 high of that range versus 159.32 currently if global bond yields are pressuring higher again and the US dollar likewise.
The Swiss franc has weakened again on the return of the appeal of carry trades (funding currency trades in CHF) as volatility remains low, yields elevated and Switzerland’s SNB is seen maintaining its 0% policy rate for now. EURCHF has rebounded from the 0.9310 low last week to 0.9389 by early Thursday.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis
预览 PDF
正在载入文档……
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
- 通胀数据走强支持美联储年内再次加息。
- 英伟达强劲的业绩和展望强化了AI需求。
- 俄乌供应担忧推高小麦价格。
- 地缘政治消息导致油价波动。
- 杰克逊霍尔讲话前黄金盘整。
- PCE数据火热后国债收益率反弹。
- 外汇波动率低，瑞郎走弱。
风险
- 通胀持续可能迫使美联储更激进收紧。
- 俄乌冲突升级可能扰乱小麦供应并推高食品通胀。
- 中东紧张局势可能影响石油供应和价格。
- 美联储政策不确定性可能增加市场波动。