加拿大5月GDP增长0.3%，强于预期，加之6月初步预计增长0.2%，进一步证明经济在第二季度以稳健步伐反弹，此前冬季增长一度停滞。
增长基础广泛，商品生产行业和服务业均有所增长，其中矿业、采石业、石油和天然气开采、建筑业、制造业、房地产和租赁业以及公共管理领域均实现增长。
5月报告进一步印证了第二季度开局强于预期。尽管部分贸易敏感行业仍面临阻力，包括批发贸易活动下滑，但其他领域增长依然相对稳健，这得益于制造业产出连续第二个月增长、资源行业持续增长，以及房地产市场活动初现复苏迹象。
月度GDP读数及初步估计历来容易修正，但初步估计（包括6月提前预估）显示，第三季度环比年化增长率为2%，较我们预测的1%高出逾一个百分点。
展望未来，贸易紧张局势升级以及美国最新关税公告对前景构成下行风险，尤其是对目标行业。尽管如此，第三季度增长反弹和劳动力市场企稳的迹象令人鼓舞。我们仍预计今年经济按人均和人均工人计算将逐步改善。
5月份，商品生产行业继上月强劲增长1.4%后，实现了0.6%的增长，主要由采矿业、采石业以及石油和天然气开采、建筑业和制造业引领。
制造业产出增长了0.3%，在4月份增长0.7%的基础上，18个子行业中有10个实现了广泛增长。
建筑业GDP增长又攀升了0.8%，延续了4月份1.3%的增长，主要受工程及其他建筑活动以及住宅建设的推动。
服务业生产增长了0.2%，与前一个月持平，房地产及租赁业和公共部门表现领先，而批发贸易则出现下滑。
更具体地说，5月份房地产及租赁业产出增长了0.4%，连续第四个月实现月度增长，这与同期强劲的二手房销售成交量相符。
加拿大统计局（高度易修正确认）的初步估计显示，6月份GDP小幅增长0.2%。批发、金融和保险以及零售贸易的增长部分被公用事业和农业、林业、渔业和狩猎业的下降所抵消。
综合来看，现有数据表明第二季度经济势头总体上保持积极，尽管全球贸易政策的不确定性继续对下半年经济前景构成压力。
内森·詹曾（Nathan Janzen）是助理首席经济学家，领导宏观经济分析团队。他的工作重点是分析和预测加拿大和美国的经济动态。
艾比·徐（Abbey Xu）是加拿大皇家银行的经济学家。她是宏观经济分析团队的一员，专注于宏观经济预测模型，并及时提供经济趋势的分析和更新。
The stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase in Canadian GDP in May (and early estimate of another 0.2% increase in June) added to evidence that the economy bounced back at a solid pace in the second quarter after growth stalled over the winter.
Growth was broad-based across both goods-producing and services-providing industries, with gains in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extractions, construction, manufacturing, real estate and rental and leasing, and public administration.
The May report builds on a stronger-than-expected start to the second quarter. While some trade-sensitive industries continued to face headwinds, including a decline in wholesale trade activity, growth elsewhere remained relatively resilient, supported by a second consecutive increase in manufacturing output, continued gains in the resource sector, and emerging green shoots in housing market activity.
Monthly GDP readings and advance estimates are notoriously revision-prone, but the preliminary estimate, including the June advance, points to annualized quarter-over-quarter growth of 3.4% in Q2, more than a percentage point above our 2.2% forecast.
Looking ahead, escalating trade tensions and the latest U.S. tariff announcements pose downside risks to the outlook, particularly for targeted industries. Still, signs of a bounce-back in Q2 growth and stabilization in labour markets are encouraging. We continue to expect the economy to gradually improve on a per-person and per-worker basis this year.
Goods-producing industries expanded 0.6% in May, following a robust 1.4% advance the prior month, led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, construction and manufacturing.
Manufacturing output rose 0.3%, building on April’s 0.7% gain, with broad-based strength across 10 of 18 subsectors.
Construction GDP growth climbed another 0.8%, extending April’s 1.3% growth, driven primarily by engineering and other construction alongside residential building.
Services-producing industries rose 0.2%, matching the previous month’s pace, with real estate and rental and leasing, and public sectors leading the way, while wholesale trade posted declines.
More specifically, real estate and rental and leasing output rose 0.4% in May, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain and aligning with strong home resale volumes during the period.
Statistics Canada’s advance estimate (highly revision-prone) indicated GDP edged up 0.2% in June. Gains in wholesale, finance and insurance, and retail trade were partially offset by losses in utilities and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.
Taken together, available data suggest economic momentum remained broadly positive through the second quarter, although uncertainty surrounding global trade policy continues to weigh on the outlook for the second half of the year.
Nathan Janzen is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
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