6月份加拿大贸易余额连续第四个月保持顺差，黄金出口激增抵消了能源出口的（价格相关）下降。
月度贸易数据历来波动较大，但仍使净贸易对第2季度GDP增长形成显著正向拉动——这与早前月度GDP数据基本一致，后者已显示我们自己对第2季度GDP增长约2.2%的预测存在约一个百分点的上行风险。
重要的是，这种净拉动可能既源于商品出口量增长超过20%+（表明外部需求走强），也源于进口增长仍稳健——后者与设备进口大幅增加有关，这对加拿大国内投资支出是一个积极信号（尤其是6月份的激增，与加工单元进口增加相关，可能用于数据中心）。
美国行政当局威胁将于本月晚些时候实施的新关税将显著削弱加拿大相对于其他主要美国进口市场的平均相对关税税率。但由于符合CUSMA规定的贸易可获豁免，以及过去一年大幅增长的更广泛的美国产品特定豁免清单，加拿大对美国的出口中仍有超过80%的部分可免关税。
我们继续预期，作为基准情形，2026年美国关税环境更加稳定（尽管某些产品的关税税率仍显著提高）将使贸易对经济增长的拖累小于2025年。
加拿大商品贸易顺差在6月连续第四个月保持盈余，从5月经下修后的$3.7亿加元（此前为$4.2亿加元）升至$3.9亿加元。
6月贸易顺差的小幅扩大主要受黄金出口激增（28%）推动，抵消了能源出口价格导致的10%下降。
黄金和能源产品类别均异常波动——但排除这些成分后，6月贸易流显示出进一步稳定的迹象。
剔除价格影响后，出口量在Q2创下历史新高——环比年化增长23%，同比去年春季美国新关税导致贸易流大幅萎缩时增长9.5%。
Q2整体出口量增长中，约40%来自冬季生产中断后汽车行业出口的反弹。钢铁出口量仍面临压力（同比-12%）。
按名义价值计算（未剔除价格影响），6月对美出口同比增长24%，对非美目的地增长28%。
6月进口量下降1.8%，延续了5月0.5%的降幅，但Q2整体年化仍增长5.8%。
进口细节显示，加拿大Q2商业投资可能大幅跃升，工业设备进口增长（年化10.6%）以及电子设备采购激增42.8%，据报道这得益于数据中心处理单元的购买。
综合来看，在控制价格变化和波动性黄金发货量后——数据显示净贸易对Q2年化GDP增长的贡献约为4个百分点，强化了此前月度GDP数据所显示的Q2GDP在前两个季度停滞后的大幅反弹。
内森·詹森是助理首席经济学家，负责宏观经济分析团队。他的工作重点在于分析和预测加拿大及美国的宏观经济动态。
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Canada’s trade balance held in surplus for a fourth consecutive month in June with a jump in gold exports offsetting a (price-related) drop in energy exports.
The monthly trade data is notoriously volatile, but still left net trade tracking a sizable net add to GDP growth in Q2 — broadly consistent with earlier monthly GDP data that was already tracking roughly a percentage point of upside risk to our own forecast for a 2.2% Q2 GDP gain.
Critically that net add looks likely to be a function of both a 20%+ surge in merchandise export volumes (a sign of firming external demand) outpacing still solid import growth — the latter tied to a large jump in equipment imports that is a positive sign for domestic Canadian investment spending (with a jump in June in particular tied to increased imports of processing units likely for use in data centers.)
New tariffs threatened by the U.S. administration to be implemented later this month would significantly erode Canada’s average relative tariff rate compared to other major U.S. import markets. But they would still leave more than 80% of Canadian exports to the U.S. duty free due to both the exemption for CUSMA-compliant trade and a list of broader U.S. product-specific exemptions that has grown substantially over the last year.
We continue to expect, as a base-case, that a more stable U.S. tariff backdrop in 2026 (albeit still at significantly higher tariff rates for some products) will leave trade as less of a headwind to growth than it was in 2025.
The Canadian merchandise trade balance held in surplus for a fourth consecutive month in June, rising to $3.9 billion from a downwardly revised $3.7 billion (previously $4.2 billion) level in May.
The small widening in the June trade surplus was led by a jump in gold exports (28%) that offset a price-led 10% drop in energy exports.
Both of the gold and energy product categories have been exceptionally volatile — but excluding those components, trade flows showed further signs of stabilization in June.
Excluding price impacts, export volumes hit a record high in Q2 — up an annualized 23% from Q1, and 9.5% from a year ago when trade flows were sharply depressed by new U.S. tariffs imposed in spring 2025.
About 40% of the overall Q2 export volumes increase came from a rebound in auto sector exports after production disruptions in the winter. Steel export volumes remained under pressure (-12% from a year ago)
In nominal terms (not excluding price impacts), exports to the U.S. were up 24% year-over-year in June and 28% to non-U.S. destinations.
Imports volumes fell 1.8% in June, building on a 0.5% drop in May, but were still up an annualized 5.8% in Q2 as a whole
Import details point to a potentially sizable jump in Q2 Canadian business investment from both a jump in industrial equipment imports (10.6% annualized) and a 42.8% surge in electronic equipment purchases that was reportedly supported by purchases of processing units for data centers.
On net, controlling for both price changes and volatile gold shipments — the data is tracking an add to Q2 annualized GDP growth from net trade of around 4 percentage points, reinforcing earlier monthly GDP data that pointed to a sizable bounce-back in Q2 GDP after growth stalled over the prior two quarters.
Nathan Janzen is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.
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