加拿大劳动力市场在7月显示出进一步改善的迹象，就业人数增加75千人，延续了5月和6月分别增加106千人的势头，失业率回落至两年来的最低水平（6.4%）。
尽管如此，今年迄今（2026）平均每月就业增长仍处于历史温和水平，为每月10千人，此前年初开局疲软。但在人口增长放缓和工人退休增加对可用劳动力规模构成结构性压力的背景下，就业数据看起来仍然更加令人印象深刻。
失业率是衡量劳动者个人劳动力市场状况的更好指标，7月失业率走低，较一年前下降半个百分点。
劳动力市场尚未强劲——失业率仍高于正常水平，且7月工资增长放缓。但尽管美国关税不确定性依然显著且能源价格上涨，市场仍在改善。
关税风险依然存在，但CUSMA继续为加拿大对美大部分出口提供免关税贸易支持——而美国全球整体关税率已逐渐下移而非上升。能源价格仍处高位，但已从一季度（Q2,）的较高水平回落，经济增长数据也显示在冬季停滞后，二季度（Q2）出现回升迹象。
我们继续预计失业率在今年下半年将小幅下降。
7月就业人数增加75千，延续了5月和6月的18千和88千的增长。这些增长之前，年初表现较为疲软，但仍将年初至今的就业增长推入正区间，达到68千。
7月就业增长由全职（增加+38.6千）和兼职（增加+36.6千）共同推动——但年初至今，就业增长完全来自全职岗位（年初至今增加+82千）。
从行业来看，制造业（增加+11千）和建筑业（增加+16千）领涨商品生产行业，增加11千，而服务业就业增加64千，分布相对广泛，但公共管理行业减少了15千。
人口（15+）增长继续超出早前加拿大统计局报告的估计，显示总人口绝对下降，7月增加15千。
不过，考虑到对劳动力供应增长造成压力的潜在人口趋势，就业增长数据看起来更好。
由于移民限制，人口增长已大幅放缓，且随着劳动力老龄化，退休人数持续处于高位——截至7月，过去一年每月有26千名工人退休。
这些退休人员是推动劳动力参与率下降的主要因素——7月的65.1%参与率较一年前下降0.1个百分点，尽管15-24岁和25-54岁人群的参与率分别上升了0.6和0.4个百分点。
失业率回落至6.4%。这是2年来的最低水平，进一步低于4月的2026和6.9%高点，以及8月和9月2025的近期峰值7.1%。
青年（15-24岁）失业率在7月基本持平于仍较高的12.6%（6月为12.7%），但仍较一年前下降近2个百分点。25-54岁人群的失业率从5.6%小幅下降至5.5%。
7月总工时再跳增0.6%，叠加6月和5月分别增加0.2%和0.6%，与早期GDP估计中指出的Q2经济增长动能延续至Q3一致。
薪资增长是数据中的疲软点，从6月的3.3%小幅下降至2.8%。薪资数据放缓并不意外——尽管失业率开始小幅走低，但仍处于高位，预计短期内将继续对薪资增长构成压力。
安大略省贡献了全国就业增长的三分之二，7月增加52千，推动其失业率降至两年低点6.8%。不列颠哥伦比亚省（增加18千）、曼尼托巴省（5.9千）和新斯科舍省（4.6千）也录得稳健的就业增长和失业率下降，而魁北克省劳动力市场仍显低迷，阿尔伯塔省在经历了过去12个月的强劲就业增长后趋于平稳。
Nathan Janzen是助理首席经济学家，领导宏观经济分析团队。他专注于分析和预测加拿大和美国的宏观经济动态。
Canada’s labour market showed further signs of improvement in July with a 75k increase in employment building on 106k increases over May and June, and the unemployment rate ticking down to its lowest level (6.4%) in two years.
That still leaves average monthly job growth for 2026 to-date at a historically modest 10k/month after a soft start to the year. But the employment numbers also still look more impressive against a backdrop of slower population growth and elevated worker retirements that are structurally weighing on the size of the available labour force.
The unemployment rate is a better measure of per-worker labour market conditions, and the tick lower in July left the rate down half a percent from a year ago.
The labour market is not yet strong — the unemployment rate is still higher than normal, and wage growth slowed in July. But it has been improving despite still significant U.S. tariff uncertainty and higher energy prices.
Tariff risks remain, but CUSMA continues to backstop duty-free trade for most Canadian exports to the U.S — and broader U.S. global tariff rates have been edging gradually lower rather than higher. Energy prices are still elevated but have eased from higher levels in Q2, and economic growth data has also shown signs of picking up in Q2 after stalling over the winter.
We continue to look for the unemployment rate to edge lower over the second half of the year.
Employment rose 75k in July, building on 18k and 88k increases in May and June. Those increases follow a much softer start to the year, but still pushed the year-to-date employment growth count into positive territory at 68k.
July employment gains were split between full time (+38.6k) and part-time (+36.6k) increases — year-to-date, though, job growth has entirely come from full time positions (+82k year-to-date.)
On an industry basis manufacturing (+11k) and construction (+16k) led an 11k increase in goods-producing employment, while a 64k jump in services employment was relatively widespread by industry, with the exception of a 15k drop in public administration.
Population (15+) growth continued to surprise on the upside relative to earlier reported estimates from Statistics Canada showing that total population is declining outright with a 15k increase in July.
Still, the the employment growth numbers look better controlling for underlying demographic trends that are weighing heavily on growth in the available labour supply.
Population growth has still slowed sharply due to immigration curbs, and workers continued to retire at an elevated rate as the workforce ages — 26k workers per month retired over the last year as of July.
Those retirements have been the main factor pushing the labour force participation rate lower — the 65.1% rate in July was down 0.1 percentage points from a year ago despite 0.6 and 0.4 ppt increases in the participation rates for 15-24 year-olds and 25-54 year-olds, respectively.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.4%. That is the lowest level in 2 years, and further below the 2026 high 6.9% rate in April and 7.1% recent peak in August and September 2025.
The youth (15-24 year-old) unemployment rate was little changed at a still elevated 12.6% in July (12.7% in June), but that was still down almost 2 percentage points from a year ago. The rate for 25-54 year-olds edged down to 5.5% from 5.6%.
Total hours worked jumped another 0.6% in July, adding to 0.2% and 0.6% increases in June and May, respectively, and consistent with economic growth momentum flagged in early GDP estimates for Q2 continuing into Q3.
Wage growth was a softer spot in the data, edging down to 2.8% from 3.3% in June. Slower wage data is not surprising — while unemployment has begun to edge lower, it is still elevated and that is expected to keep wage growth under pressure in the near-term.
Ontario accounted for two-thirds of the employment gain nationwide with a rise of 52k in July, driving its jobless rate to a two-year low of 6.8%. British Columbia (up 18k), Manitoba (5.9k), and Nova Scotia (4.6k) also posted solid employment advances and falling jobless rates, while Quebec’s labour market remained subdued and Alberta paused following strong job increases in the past 12 months.
Nathan Janzen is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.
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