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百达 · 2026/06/29

为何亚洲能源冲击将加速清洁转型

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为何亚洲能源冲击将加速清洁转型

在2002,年11月,菲律宾能源部长文斯·佩雷斯陪同总统格洛丽亚·马卡帕加尔·阿罗约参加了白宫的一次决定性会晤。正是在这次会议上,乔治·W·布什总统向毫无戒心的客人们暗示,美国即将对伊拉克开战。

佩雷斯记得自己当时胃里翻江倒海。他知道,对于一个石油进口依存度超过90%、且严重依赖中东原油的国家来说,这场冲突可能引发能源短缺、失控的通胀和经济动荡。

佩雷斯回忆道:“我的总统低声对我说:‘文斯,你是能源部长。确保我们有充足的石油供应。’”

接下来的几个月里,他为各种可能的突发情况做准备。他前往邻国印度尼西亚和文莱,访问海湾产油国伊朗、阿联酋和卡塔尔,甚至远赴莫斯科,以确保双边石油供应协议。与此同时,他建立了缓冲库存,并寻求可再生能源和地热能等替代能源。

佩雷斯的努力得到了回报。菲律宾得以幸免于最严重的供应中断。

二十多年后,这一教训依然清晰:能源安全需要准备、多元化和快速应对。

“这一次,亚洲国家在毫无预兆的冲突中措手不及。他们完全没有准备,”佩雷斯警告说。此时,伊朗战争使菲律宾和亚洲其他地区陷入自1973以来最严重的能源危机。

如今,亚洲是受该冲突影响最大的地区,每天通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油中,有超过80%(即30百万桶)流经该海峡。

除了该地区的短期应对之外,佩雷斯(现任可再生能源开发商Alternergy董事长)认为,更深层次的结构性转型正在向能源转型推进,这将给能够以创新解决方案适应的国家、行业和公司带来回报。

高碳绕行

冲突爆发三个月后,眼前的应对远非清洁。

为填补缺口、防止停电,中国、印度和菲律宾在禁运解除后立即购买俄罗斯石油,并重启已退役的燃煤电厂,这是下意识的反应。

佩雷斯表示:“这是生存优先的能源政策,导致短期回归煤炭。我称之为‘高碳绕行’。”

其他国家则转向核能——低碳但政治上备受争议的方案。日本将闲置的核反应堆重新启用,中国和印度扩大产能,台湾则逆转了弃核政策。

然而,从长远来看,他认为这场战争将加速各国通过可再生能源实现能源独立的努力,各国将转向海上风电、公用事业规模太阳能、电池储能和电动车。

他认为中国很可能成为最大赢家。

中国不仅凭借充足的石油储备(覆盖100天)以及获得俄罗斯和伊朗石油的能力安然度过了能源冲击,而且其过去十年在可再生能源上的资本投入如今几个月内便初见成效。

佩雷斯表示:“中国过去因建设1,200吉瓦的太阳能和风电而受到批评,被嘲讽为产能过剩和不必要。但显然,这现在成了对冲霍尔木兹海峡冲击的保险。过去十年提前投入的资本开支是减震器。”

中国的另一优势在于,其电动车市场快速增长且高度发达,占全球销量的65%。

佩雷斯说:“每桶100美元的油价是电动车最好的广告。没有什么比持续的油价冲击更能加速替代燃料的采用。这是全球电动车行业免费获得的最有效的营销活动。”

在中国,新车销售中电动车的渗透率从2025,年底的52%上升到今年的62%,比亚迪、吉利-极氪、小鹏、蔚来和奇瑞的出口在2026年4月同比翻了一番以上。

同样重要的是,中国在电池储能领域领先。最近公布的三年计划提出到2027,年建成180吉瓦时的产能,采用锂离子系统以平衡电力供应、存储能量并提供辅助服务。

包括宁德时代、比亚迪和亿纬锂能在内的中国电池公司占据全球电芯供应的70%。但电池技术的进步不仅限于中国——整个地区都在兴起。

日本、韩国及其他国家也在建设电池产能,这些努力意味着亚太地区在2026年占全球电池储能系统(BESS)市场的70%。

展望更远的未来,佩雷斯认为,石油危机将推动一项雄心勃勃的计划提前实现,即到2045,年互联东盟国家的电网,实现跨境电力交易,纳入更多可再生能源,并提升这一快速增长地区的能源安全。

他表示,例如新加坡正在快速推进通过跨境高压直流(HVDC)互联从老挝引入可再生水电的计划,同时探索通过海底电缆获取越南的海上风电。

佩雷斯说:“亚太地区正成为能源转型的终极概念验证。”

“能源安全如今等同于国家安全。对亚太地区而言,对动荡中东的依赖不应再是选项,各方正转向可再生能源和电池储能。这场战争正在定义该地区未来十年的能源独立。”

完整英文原文

In November 2002, the Philippine Energy Secretary Vince Pérez accompanied his President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to a fateful meeting at the White House. It was at this gathering that President George W. Bush hinted to his unsuspecting guests that the US was about to go to war with Iraq.

Pérez remembers his stomach churning. He knew that, for a country that imported over 90% of its petroleum and relied heavily on Middle Eastern crude, the conflict could trigger energy shortages, runaway inflation and economic instability.

Pérez recalls: “My president whispered to me: ‘Vince, you’re the energy secretary. Make sure we have adequate petroleum supply.'”

He spent the following several months preparing for every eventuality. He travelled to neighbouring Indonesia and Brunei, to Gulf producers of Iran, the UAE and Qatar, and as far as Moscow to secure bilateral oil supply deals. At the same time, he built buffer stocks and pursued alternative energy sources like renewables and geothermal power.

Pérez’s efforts paid off. The Philippines was spared the worst of the disruptions.

More than two decades on, the lesson remains clear: energy security demands preparation, diversification and a speedy response.

“This time, Asian countries were caught off guard in the crossfire with no advance notice. They were completely unprepared,” warns Pérez, as the Iran war plunges the Philippines and the rest of Asia into their biggest energy crisis since 1973.

Today, Asia is the most exposed region to the conflict, consuming more than 80% of the 30 million barrels a day of oil that transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond the region’s short-term scramble, Pérez, who is now the chairman of renewable power developer Alternergy, argues that a deeper, structural shift towards the energy transition is under way, rewarding countries, sectors and companies that can adapt with innovative solutions.

Dirty detour

Three months into the conflict, the immediate response has been far less clean.

As a knee-jerk reaction to bridge the gap and prevent black-outs, China, India and the Philippines bought Russian oil as soon as the embargo was lifted, and restarted retired coal plants.

“It’s a survival-first energy policy leading to a short-term return to coal. I call it a dirty detour,” Pérez says.

Others turned to nuclear – a low-carbon but politically contentious option. Japan switched idle nuclear reactors back online, China and India expanded capacity and Taiwan reversed its nuclear phase-out policy.

In the long term, however, he sees the war accelerating a drive for energy independence via renewables, with countries turning to offshore wind, utility-scale solar, battery energy storage and electric vehicles.

He believes China is likely to emerge as the biggest winner.

Not only has it managed to weather the energy shock with its ample oil reserves covering 100 days and access to Russian and Iranian oil, but its decade-long capital investment in renewable energy is now delivering results in a matter of months.

“China used to be criticised for having built 1,200GW of solar and wind – derided as overcapacity and unnecessary. But obviously it is now an insurance against shocks in the Strait of Hormuz. Its front-loaded capex of the last decade is a shock absorber,” Pérez says.

Also to China’s advantage, the country has a fast-growing and highly developed EV market, accounting for 65% of global sales.

“USD 100 oil is the best advertisement for EVs,” Pérez says. “Nothing accelerates the adoption of an alternative fuel more than a sustained oil price shock. This is the most effective marketing campaign the global EV industry has ever received, for free.”

In China, the EV penetration of new car sales rose to 62% this year from 52% in late 2025, with exports by BYD, Geely-Zeekr, Xpeng, Nio and Chery more than doubling year-on-year in April 2026.

Equally important, China leads in battery storage. It recently unveiled a three-year plan to build 180GWh of capacity by 2027, using lithium-ion systems to balance power supply, store energy and provide ancillary services.

Chinese battery companies, including CATL, BYD and Eve Energy, have 70% of global cell supply. But advances in batteries aren't confined to China - they are emerging right across the region.

Japan, Korea and other countries are also building battery capacity, and their efforts mean that Asia Pacific now accounts for 70% of global battery energy storage system (BESS) market in 2026.

Looking further ahead, Pérez believes the oil crisis will serve to bring forward an ambitious project to interconnect the power grid networks of ASEAN countries by 2045, enabling cross-border power trading, incorporating more renewables and improving energy security in what is a rapidly growing region.

For example, he says, Singapore is fast-tracking its plan to draw renewable hydropower from Laos through cross-border high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections, while also exploring access to offshore wind from Vietnam via a subsea cable.

“Asia Pacific is proving to be the ultimate proof of concept for the energy transition,” Pérez says.

“Energy security is now equivalent to national security. For Asia Pacific, the dependence on volatile Middle East should no longer be an option and everyone is moving towards renewables and battery storage. The war is defining energy independence of this region for the next decade.”

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由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 亚洲地区对冲突最为敏感,每日通过霍尔木兹海峡的3000万桶石油中有超过80%由亚洲消费。
  • 短期应对措施包括回归煤炭和核电这一'肮脏绕行',但长期结构性转变将走向可再生能源。
  • 中国凭借充足的石油储备(可覆盖100天)、获取俄罗斯和伊朗石油的渠道以及过去十年可再生能源投资产生的缓冲效应,可能成为最大赢家。
  • 中国电动汽车市场占全球销量的65%,高油价将加速电动汽车的普及。
  • 2026年,亚太地区占全球电池储能市场(BESS)的70%,主要得益于中国等国家的发展。
  • 危机可能加速东盟电网互联计划(目标2045年),促进跨境可再生能源交易。
  • 能源安全已成为国家安全的核心,推动该地区摆脱对中东石油的依赖。
风险
  • 短期内回归煤炭的'肮脏绕行'可能减缓减排努力。
  • 核电扩张在政治上存在争议,可能面临公众反对。
  • 地缘政治风险可能扰乱可再生能源技术的供应链。
  • 能源转型可能在不同国家间不均衡,部分国家进展缓慢。
  • 对中国在电池和可再生能源领域的依赖可能产生新的脆弱性。