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拉丁美洲每日报告:墨西哥GDP与CPI回顾

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全球经济 访问我们的网站 scotiabank.com/economics | 在Twitter上关注我们 @ScotiaEconomics | 通过电子邮件联系我们 scotia.economics@scotiabank.com 拉丁美洲每日报告 8月24,日2026 撰稿人 Juan Manuel Herrera, 董事 +52.55.2299.6675 (墨西哥) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com Jorge Selaive, 智利首席经济学家 +56.2.2619.5435 (智利) jorge.selaive@scotiabank.cl Eduardo Suárez, 拉丁美洲经济副总裁 +52.55.9179.5174 (墨西哥) esuarezm@scotiabank.com.mx 今日撰稿人:Rodolfo Mitchell, 经济与行业分析董事 +52.55.3977.4556 (墨西哥) mitchell.cervera@scotiabank.com.mx Miguel Saldaña, 经济学家 +52.55.5123.1718 (墨西哥) msaldanab@scotiabank.com.mx Martha Cordova, 经济研究专员 +52.55.5435.4824 (墨西哥) martha.cordovamendez@scotiabank.com.mx 拉丁美洲每日报告:墨西哥GDP与CPI回顾 • 墨西哥:6月经济活动增强;修正后的GDP确认了2年第二季度的广泛增长;8月初通胀仍然温和 6月经济活动增强 6月,全球经济活动指标(IGAE,图1)显示经济活动同比增长2.8%(5月为1.1%),基于原始数据,延续了近期的积极趋势。按组成部分划分,初级活动增长0.5%。工业活动恢复正增长,达到1.7%(此前为-0.7%),其中矿业增长6.6%,公用事业增长0.7%,建筑业增长5.0%,制造业增长0.1%。服务业增长3.6%,受到批发贸易(14.3%)和立法活动(6.5%)的支撑。累计来看,1月至6月,IGAE增长1.2%,初级活动增长2.2%,服务业增长1.7%,而工业活动保持停滞,为0.0%。 修正后的GDP确认了第二季度广泛增长 今天发布的Q2-26修正后GDP数据显示,年度增长率上调至2.1%(图2),略低于初值2.2%。按行业划分,增长广泛:农业活动增长4.8%,第二产业增长1.1%——主要由矿业(4.9%)和建筑业(4.8%)推动——服务业增长2.3%,其中批发贸易(11.3%)和立法活动(4.3%)表现突出。环比来看,GDP增长1.4%,所有组成部分均录得增长:农业增长2.4%,工业增长1.6%,服务业增长1.4%。上半年,GDP累计增长1.1%,农业活动增长2.1%,服务业增长1.6%,工业持平于0.0%。 8月初通胀仍然温和 8月上半月,通胀仍然温和(图3),半月环比上涨0.10%(低于预期的0.13%),年率为3.26%,低于预期的3.29%,但高于前半个月的3.14%。核心通胀年率为3.93%,非核心通胀仅为0.96%,反映出价格压力温和。在推动通胀的产品中,鸡蛋和洋葱贡献最大,以及一些服务如交通、住房和教育;而液化石油气、西红柿、土豆和鸡肉的价格下跌有助于抑制指数。在区域层面,塔巴斯科州和尤卡坦州录得最大价格涨幅,而下加利福尼亚州和圣路易斯波托西州录得负增长。按消费类别划分,涨幅突出的是酒精饮料和烟草、教育服务和餐馆,而住房、通信和娱乐类则有所下降。

n出现下跌。——Rodolfo Mitchell、Miguel Saldaña和Martha Cordova 图表1 图表2 图表3 90 94 98 102 106 110 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 IGAE 工业 服务业 墨西哥:IGAE及其主要组成部分(月度GDP代理指标)来源:Scotiabank Economics、INEGI、Haver。指数,2018=100(季调后) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1T2022 3T2022 1T2023 3T2023 1T2024 3T2024 1T2025 3T2025 1T2026 总GDP 农业 工业 服务业 来源:Scotiabank Economics、INEGI、Haver。%同比 墨西哥:季度GDP -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 双周总体CPI 双周核心CPI 双周非核心CPI 墨西哥:双周通胀及其主要组成部分来源:Scotiabank Economics、INEGI。%同比

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关键论点
  • 6月份IGAE同比增长2.8%,较5月份的1.1%明显反弹。
  • 2026年第二季度GDP修正为同比增长2.1%,各行业普遍增长。
  • 8月上旬通胀年率为3.26%,低于预期且保持温和。
  • 核心通胀年率为3.93%,非核心仅为0.96%。
  • 工业活动重回正增长,主要由采矿业和建筑业带动。
风险
  • 下行风险:非核心通胀可能因农业价格波动而飙升。
  • 下行风险:上半年工业部门持平,表明其脆弱性。
  • 上行风险:强劲的服务业和批发贸易可能加速增长。
  • 如果能源或食品价格反弹,通胀可能上升。