印度：为何在创纪录增长下中产阶级仍难崛起？

关键论点

• 印度快速的GDP增长并未转化为庞大的中产阶级，中产阶级仅占总人口的1.6%（约2400万）。
• 劳动力市场以非正规、低技能、低附加值的工作为主，制造业的就业弹性仅为0.1。
• 高潜力行业（如电子、汽车、化工等）发展不足，受技能错配和营商环境等制约。
• 人工智能可能冲击高薪酬的服务业岗位（如IT、金融），而这些对中产阶级的增长至关重要。
• 政府改革（如生产挂钩激励计划、劳工法改革、欧盟贸易协定）方向正确，但不足以解决问题，需配套教育体系改革。

对应原文证据

1. By way of comparison, it is 3.5 times lower than that of China, and per capita consumption at purchasing power parity (PPP) is 1.3 times lower than that of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
2. According to our estimates[1], the middle class accounts for only 1.6% of India’s population, equating to just 24 million people.
3. This figure is lower than that of Thailand and Vietnam, each with over 30 million, and signi ficantly less than China’s middle class, which is estimated at 490 million people, or 35% of the population, using the same methodology.