央行独立性正面临本世纪最大压力测试

关键论点

• 央行独立性是近代的制度妥协，并非自然法则，如今正受财政主导和政治机会主义的威胁。
• 七国集团高额债务和不断上升的借贷成本使央行面临债务货币化的压力。
• 供给冲击型通胀使央行更难实现无痛紧缩，增加了公众指责。
• 美国、日本、英国、加拿大和法国的政治攻击正在侵蚀对央行的制度约束。
• 公信力的丧失可能导致通胀预期脱锚，推高债券收益率并拖累增长。

对应原文证据

1. Today, central bank independence is facing the most dangerous stress test of its history, caught between the anvil of challenging economic circumstances and the hammer of political opportunism. · medium_term
2. Across the G7, government debt-to-GDP ratios have surged to heights unseen outside of wartime and are generally on track to keep growing based on current policies · medium_term
3. When a central bank is seen as not entirely free to do what is needed to deliver price stability, inflation expectations can become unanchored. Financial markets demand higher risk premiums, bond yields climb, and everyday borrowing costs from thirty-year mortgages to consumer credit and corporate loans rise, slowing down growth. · medium_term