Intesa Sanpaolo · 08/28/2026
Macro · Macro Rapid Response Italy: confidence on the rise in August, driven by construction and services
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The report
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AI analysis
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Key arguments
- The IESI composite business confidence index rose for the second month to 96.9, driven by construction and services.
- Construction confidence jumped to 102.9, benefiting from National Recovery Plan works.
- Services confidence rose to 99.5, supported by strong summer tourism.
- Manufacturing sentiment improved only slightly, with orders deteriorating.
- Household confidence improved modestly to 94.5, but spending caution persists.
- Inflation expectations slowed, with expected inflation at 36.6.
- GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.1% q/q in Q3, with 2026 growth at 0.8-0.9%.
Risks
- Weaker-than-expected consumer spending could weigh on growth.
- Manufacturing order deterioration suggests potential slowdown.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains.
- The war in Iran aftermath may affect forecasts.