Intesa Sanpaolo · 08/28/2026
Macro · Macro Rapid Response Eurozone: ESI index at a high since January
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The report
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AI analysis
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Key arguments
- ESI rose to 98.4 in August from 96.9, the highest since January, though still below the long-term average.
- The improvement is widespread across industry, services, retail, construction, and consumer confidence.
- The resilience may be partly due to precautionary restocking after the Hormuz blockade; hiring intentions suggest firms see production increases as not temporary.
- Services sector shows better-than-expected resilience despite energy shock and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Risks from recent fuel price rises and future gas price increases warrant caution for growth and inflation.
- Selling price expectations remain controlled overall, with slight declines in manufacturing, wholesale/retail, and construction, while services rose modestly.
- This picture remains consistent with an ECB rate hike in September, which could be the last.
- Available surveys imply average GDP growth of about 0.3% q/q in H2 2026 and just under 1% for 2026 as a whole.
Risks
- Recent rises in fuel prices and potential higher gas prices in the coming months could weigh on growth and lift inflation.
- Downside risks to growth and upside risks to core inflation have eased but should not be underestimated.
- Consumers' perceived and expected inflation has risen slightly; September survey may be more influenced by fuel price rises.