Intesa Sanpaolo · 09/02/2026
EUR swap: high real rates and normalisation of inflation
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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
- The 10-year real EUR swap rate is near fundamentals at 1.15%, with a theoretical value of 1.14%.
- The ECB balance sheet reduction continues to exert upward pressure on equilibrium real rates.
- Base case: ECB holds rates steady and inflation stabilises around 2%, leading to gradual decline in real rates.
- Inflation swap moderately overvalued, expected to converge towards ECB target.
- Key risk is a rise in term premium rather than higher inflation.
Risks
- Higher-for-longer ECB rates could push real rates to 1.8-2.0%.
- Sharp rise in term premium could push real rates above 2.0%.
- European fiscal shock could stabilise real rates at 1.2-1.5%.
- New energy shocks or fiscal expansion could keep inflation elevated.
- Deglobalisation and structural inflation risk could lift inflation swaps to 2.5-3.0%.