II Institutional Intelligence
Commerzbank · 08/28/2026

Germany – Upwards in the economic cycle

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Complete English original

The German economic cycle appears to have turned to the upside.

German Economy posts a fairly strong gain ...

The economic situation in Germany has taken a turn for the better. According to the latest GDP figures released last Tuesday, the German economy grew even more strongly in the second quarter than previously assumed. As a result, economic output has risen by an average of 0.35% in each of the last three quarters compared to the previous quarter. Extrapolated over the year, this corresponds to a growth rate of 1.5%, which is significantly higher than the potential growth rate, generally estimated at less than 1%.

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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
  • The German economic cycle has turned upwards.
  • Second quarter GDP growth was stronger than initially assumed.
  • Average quarterly growth of 0.35% over the last three quarters implies an annualized rate of 1.5%.
  • This growth rate is significantly higher than the potential growth rate of less than 1%.
Risks
  • The growth rate could be revised downwards due to data revisions or external shocks.
  • Slower global demand could dampen Germany's export-oriented economy.
  • Geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions could impact economic activity.