Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. C1 - P ublic Natixis RESEARCH 1 September 2026 M IDDLE E AST W EEKLY T RACKER Diplomacy Continues While Military Attacks Return Conflict update: Since last week, diplomacy has remained open while military attacks returned. On 25 August, Iran and Oman discussed a phased framework for a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor and joint mine clearance. On 30 August, the US struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, saying IRGC forces were preparing to deploy rockets with sea mines. Iran then retaliated against US forces in Jordan. On 31 August, the UAE intercepted an Iranian drone and Trump threatened further strikes, although both Washington and Tehran signaled that they did not seek a return to full- scale war. No final Hormuz or US-Iran agreement has been reached. Oil: Brent futures rose from USD84/bbl on 25 August to USD89/bbl on 1 September as renewed fighting rebuild the Hormuz risk premium. CDS: GCC CDS were broadly stable over the week, with only small moves across markets. Bahrain remains the most stressed. Stock/other Markets: GCC equities were mixed. Kuwait and Oman rose, Oman as the corridor counterparty and the main bypass route, while Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain fell on direct attack risk and thinner fiscal cover. Investment flows: Foreign outflows eased to USD64mn in the week to 30 August from USD124mn previously, with selling moderating in both Saudi and Dubai. Investor sentiment remains cautious rather than outright risk-off. Real economy: Hormuz traffic remains severely constrained. On 1 September, another tanker reported being hit by three projectiles while leaving the Strait. Dubai and Doha flights also remain below schedule. WRITTEN BY Alicia GARCIA HERRERO Tel. +852 3900 8680 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com Jeremy Ji Tel. +852 3900 8701 jeremy.ji-ext@natixis.com Discover more of our research… … on research.natixis.com 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 01/25 04/25 07/25 10/25 01/26 04/26 07/26 GCC : 5-year CDS (2025=100) Bahrain Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Dubai N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026. Source: Natixis, Bloomberg, LSEG 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 01/25 04/25 07/25 10/25 01/26 04/26 07/26 GCC Stock Market (2025=100) Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Qatar Kuwait Abu Dhabi Dubai N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026. Source: Natixis, Bloomberg A SIA M ACRO I NSIGHTS 2 ► Market Movement Policy Rate and CPI Stock and Bond Market T-Spread and CDS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Chart 1 GCC key policy rate (%) Saudi Arabia UAE Oman Kuwait Bahrain Qatar N.B. Data as of July 2026. Source: Natixis, LSEG -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Chart 2 CPI (YoY, %) Saudi Arabia Dubai Oman Bahrain Kuwait Qatar N.B. Data as of July 2026. Sources: Natixis, Bloomberg 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 01/25 04/25 07/25 10/25 01/26 04/26 07/26 Chart 3 GCC Stock Market (2025=100) Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Qatar Kuwait Abu Dhabi Dubai N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026. Source: Natixis, Bloomberg 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 03/25 06/25 09/25 12/25 03/26 06/26 Chart 4 10 Year Government Bond Yield (%) Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Qatar Dubai N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026, Dubai bond maturity at 2043 Source: Natixis, Bloomberg 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 01/25 04/25 07/25 10/25 01/26 04/26 07/26 Chart 5 GCC : 5-year CDS (2025=100) Bahrain Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Dubai N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026. Source: Natixis, Bloomberg, LSEG A SIA M ACRO I NSIGHTS 3 Crude Oil Spot and Futures Market Price ► Capital Market Investment Flow By Ownership and By Market 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 01/01 20/02 11/04 31/05 20/07 Chart 6 Global Oil future price (USD/bbl) Brent WTI N.B. data as of September 1, 2026 Source: Natixis, Bloomberg 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 01/01 20/02 11/04 31/05 20/07 Chart 7 Oil spot price (USD/bbl) DME Oman/Dubai Iran Heavy ESPO (Russia) Brent (UK) N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026. Source: Natixis, iFinD -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 11/25 01/26 03/26 05/26 06/26 08/26 Chart 8 Investment in GCC major stock markets by ownership (USD, bn) Domestic Other GCC Countries Foreign N.B. Data as of August 30, 2026, stock market include Dubai, Saudi Source: Natixis, Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 10/25 12/25 02/26 04/26 06/26 08/26 Chart 10 Foreign capital flows into stock markets (USD, bn) Saudi Dubai N.B. Data as of August 30, 2026 Source: Natixis, Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 11/25 01/26 03/26 05/26 06/26 08/26 Thousands Chart 9 Investment in GCC major stock markets by ownership (USD, bn) Institutional Individuals N.B. Data as of August 30, 2026, stock market include Dubai, Saudi Source: Natixis, Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 10/25 12/25 02/26 04/26 06/26 08/26 Chart 11 Domestic and GCC capital flows into stock markets (USD, bn) Saudi Dubai N.B. Data as of August 30, 2026 Source: Natixis, Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange A SIA M ACRO I NSIGHTS 4 ► Transportation Maritime Airline 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 03/04 04/03 05/03 06/02 07/02 08/01 08/31 Chart 12 Number of ships passing through strait of Hormuz daily N.B. Data as of September 1, 2026, 5-day moving average Source: Natixis, UKMTO/JMIC, Strait of Hormuz 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01/01 20/02 11/04 31/05 20/07 Chart 13 Port vessel departures per day UAE Saudi Kuwait Oman Bahrain Qatar N.B. Data as of August 29 2026, 7-day moving average Source: Natixis, CEIC 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01/01 02/10 03/22 05/01 06/10 07/20 Chart 14 Strait of hormuz arrivals of ships Tanker Container Others N.B. Data as of August 23, 2026, 7-day moving average Source: Natixis, Portwatch 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 01/01 02/10 03/22 05/01 06/10 07/20 Chart 15 Bab el-Mandeb Strait Arrivals of Ships Tanker Container Others N.B. Data as of August 23, 2026, 7-day moving average Source: Natixis, Portwatch 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 26/02 18/03 07/04 27/04 17/05 06/06 26/06 16/07 05/08 25/08 Chart 16 Number of departures flights for major middle east airport Dubai Scheduled flights Dubai Tracked flights Doha Scheduled flights (rhs) Doha Tracked flights (rhs) N.B. Data as of August 31, 2026. Source: Natixis, flightradar24 A SIA H OT T OPICS 5 Head of CIB Research Chief Economist, Asia Pacific Jean-François Robin Alicia Garcia Herrero +33 1 58 55 13 09 +852 3900 8680 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com Emerging Asia Greater China Japan, Pacific Trinh Nguyen Jianwei Xu Kohei Iwahara +852 3900 8726 +852 3900 8034 +813 4519 2144 trinh.nguyen@natixis.com jianwei.xu@natixis.com kohei.iwahara@natixis.com Asia Pacific, Thematic Research Gary Ng Haoxin Mu +852 3915 1242 +852 3900 8067 gary.ng@natixis.com haoxin.mu@natixis.com Natixis CIB Research A SIA H OT T OPICS . research.natixis.com Disclaimer C1 - P ublic Natixis This marketing communication and the information contained in this publication and any attachment thereto is exclusively intended for a client base consisting of professionals, eligible counterparties and qualified investors. 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