The billions of AI consumer surplus | Insights

While much of focus on AI’s impact on the economy has been on corporate usage, the labour market and corporate profits, including our own work, there is an additional angle which could have profound implications. Simply, the free nature of many personal-use AI tools is generating an enormous consumer surplus, as many household purchases are avoided or time is saved. A paper from Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab suggests that in early 2026, based on surveys of users, the consumer surplus generated from AI in the US amounted to roughly USD172bn, up from roughly USD116bn six months prior. With increasing usage of these tools and more personal tasks coming into scope, we could see generative AI lead to an even bigger consumer surplus in the coming years. Our back of the envelope calculations suggest that this could reach USD250bn in 2027, which is 0.8% of US GDP, or more meaningfully, 1.5% of US consumer spending. 1. How big is the consumer surplus from AI? These are not insignificant numbers – and the impact on the rest of the economy could be substantial. Data suggests that AI usage on a personal basis is highest amongst younger people – who are likely to reap more of that benefit by being more likely to use AI for a wider range of tasks. PEW data suggests that 74% of American 18-29-year-olds use AI at least several times a week, compared to 46% of over 65s. Across the world, the benefits to consumers are likely to accrue in developed markets much more than emerging markets – with personal AI usage at similar levels in Europe to the US, but much lower in much of Asia. 2. AI usage is much higher in the developed world For some people, savings from paid-for services that become replaced by AI (such as tutoring, travel agents and some software) could be funnelled into spending on non-AI affected spending, such as clothing, entertainment services and eating out. However, because many of the uses of AI are replacing services that are already free – such as searching for information – the consumer surplus comes in saved time, not money. Even so, there should be a lift to some areas of the economy. And as personal AI usage also becomes more widespread and on higher-value tasks, we could see this impact rise – playing a significant role in some pockets of consumer spending in the years to come. Would you like to find out more? Click here* to read our Free to View version of this report. To find out more about HSBC Global Investment Research, including how to subscribe, please email us at AskResearch@HSBC.com *Please note that by clicking on this link you are leaving the HSBC Corporate & Institutional Banking website, therefore please be aware that the external site policies will differ from our website terms and conditions and privacy policy. The next site will open in a new browser window or tab.

The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: James Pomeroy This document has been issued by the Research Department of HSBC. HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis or act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities/instruments mentioned in this report. Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. HSBC may use Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools approved for adoption within HSBC in the development of its research reports, utilizing these technologies to analyse large volumes of data, enhance efficiency and improve the overall user experience. This includes but is not limited to paraphrasing, developing suitable captions and supporting data visualisation. It is important to note that while AI tools assist in various aspects of report creation, all investment recommendations and opinions presented herein are formulated and approved exclusively by our research analysts. The final content of the report reflects the professional judgement and expertise of our research analysts, ensuring compliance with regulatory standards and maintaining the integrity of our research process.

It is almost impossible to talk about the trade outlook these days without talking about AI. Today, AI-enabling goods (as defined by the World Trade Organization) account for nearly 20% of global goods trade, up from 14% on average in 2024.