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Complete Research
Complete English original
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
- Real GDP growth is tracking at a 1.8% annualized pace in Q3, supported by firm consumer spending and business investment.
- The labor market remains resilient with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 180k in July and unemployment at 4.1%.
- Core PCE inflation is running at 2.8% year-over-year, above the Fed's target, prompting a hawkish hold stance.
- The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate at 5.50%-5.75% throughout 2026, with risks tilted toward a hike.
- Consumer confidence and retail sales data suggest spending is decelerating but not collapsing, supporting a soft-landing narrative.
Risks
- Inflation could reaccelerate due to supply chain disruptions from trade policies, leading to a rate hike.
- Labor market could weaken faster than expected if credit conditions tighten further.
- Prolonged high rates could trigger financial instability in parts of the banking sector.