Australia and NZ Weekly
中文标题
澳大利亚与新西兰周报
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Westpac reaffirms its call that the RBA will lift the cash rate 25bp to 4.85% at the November meeting, judging inflation is above target and above the RBA's August forecasts. The Governor's Senate remarks suggest the labour market looks tighter than previously judged. Westpac expects a majority of external members to agree, with some possible dissent. The RBNZ held unexpectedly; Westpac sees a December hike to 3.00% and a 4.00% peak in 2027.
- Institution
- Westpac / Westpac IQ
- Published
- 11/01/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- next week · medium-term · 2027
Key arguments
- Inflation is above target and above what the RBA's August forecasts implied, warranting further tightening.
- The RBA is down-weighting recent labour-market easing, with the Governor saying the market seems tighter than previously judged.
- A majority of external Monetary Policy Board members is expected to back a hike, though some may dissent.
- The RBNZ's hold was finely balanced on a 4:3 vote; further moves depend on fuel prices, inflation expectations and second-round pricing evidence.
Key numbers
- RBA cash rate forecast after November hike
- 4.85%
- RBA hike size expected
- 25bp
- RBNZ OCR forecast for December
- 3.00%
- Westpac NZ forecast OCR peak (September 2027)
- 4.00%
- Market-implied probability of RBNZ 25bp hike
- ~98%
Main risks
- Forecasts may rest on incorrect assumptions or known and unknown risks; actual outcomes may differ substantially.
- Some Monetary Policy Board members may dissent, so the November decision is not assured.
- Lags between the labour market and inflation are not captured, and energy risks flagged earlier are materialising.
Corresponding source evidence
2WESTPAC ECONOMICS ECONOMIC INSIGHT We reaffirm our expectation that the RBA Monetary Policy Board will again increase the cash rate at the November meeting.
Inflation is above target, and above what the RBA’s August forecasts implied.
The RBA is especially worried that above-target inflation will become embedded in people’s expectations and pricing decisions.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Westpac / Westpac IQ on 11/01/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 11/01/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction