'Australia and NZ Weekly'
中文标题
澳大利亚与新西兰周报
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Westpac previews a heavy central bank week: FOMC, ECB, BoJ, BoC and RBNZ decisions plus Australian Q3 CPI. Westpac forecasts headline CPI up 1.3% qtr (4.1% yr) and trimmed mean up 0.9% (3.5% yr); if broadly in line, the RBA is likely to hike 25bp in November. Westpac expects the RBNZ to raise the OCR 25bp to 3.00%, retaining a 4.00% terminal forecast for September 2027. Q3 NZ CPI rose 0.7% qtr, annual inflation easing to 3.7% yr. Westpac notes forecasts are predictive and outcomes may differ substantially.
- Institution
- Westpac / Westpac IQ
- Published
- 10/26/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- this week · 2021 · August 2024 · 2027 · next week
Key arguments
- If Australian Q3 CPI lands near Westpac's forecasts, the RBA is likely to hike 25bp in November.
- Westpac expects the RBNZ to lift the OCR 25bp to 3.00% while retaining a 4.00% terminal forecast for September 2027.
- RBA communication has become more frequent and less formal outside set-piece events, with tone differing by audience rather than signalling policy intent.
- UK inflation surprised at 3.5%yr with firmer core and services, and falling unemployment keeps demand-side inflation risks in view.
Key numbers
- Australia Q3 headline CPI (Westpac forecast, qtr)
- +1.3%
- Australia Q3 headline CPI (Westpac forecast, yr)
- 4.1%yr
- Australia Q3 trimmed mean CPI (Westpac forecast, yr)
- 3.5%yr
- NZ Q3 CPI (qtr / yr)
- +0.7% / 3.7%yr
- UK CPI (Sept, yr)
- 3.5%
Main risks
- Forecasts are predictive and may rest on incorrect assumptions or known and unknown risks; actual results may differ substantially.
- A CPI print away from Westpac's forecast would weaken the case for a November RBA hike.
- Firm UK services inflation and a resilient labour market could keep demand-driven inflation risks alive.
Corresponding source evidence
After the flurry of fireside chats this week, ’60 Minutes’ will run a pre-recorded interview with chief economist Sarah Hunter on Sunday.
· this weekNext Wednesday, the whole senior policy team will appear before Senate Estimates, just as the quarterly CPI is released.
The 2021 speeches scored in the 11 to 12 range, which is high-school-level “The RBA does not want to promise what it will do, but it is increasingly trying to tell us what it thinks.
· 2021
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac / Westpac IQ'Australia and NZ Weekly' | 10/26/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily dollar buying returns ahead of fomc | 10/27/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| BNP ParibasEcoNews of 26 October 2026 | 10/26/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKthink ahead this is how bad european inflation could get this winter | 10/23/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Westpac / Westpac IQ on 10/26/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/26/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction