U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (August 2026)

中文标题

美国ISM制造业指数(2026年8月)

TD Economics / TD Securities09/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

TD Economics reports the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.6 in August 2026 from 55.6 in July, missing consensus and signaling moderated but still expansionary growth. Demand weakened, production stayed strong, and price pressures remained elevated, suggesting a complex near-term outlook.

Institution: TD Economics / TD Securities
Published: 09/01/2026
Research topic: 制造业生产 · SPX · 通胀压力
Time horizon: 2026-08 · near-term

SPX · SPX US10Y · US10Y CPI · CPI

Key arguments

The headline manufacturing PMI slipped 1.0 point to 54.6 in August, remaining in expansion for an eighth consecutive month but below the 55.2 consensus.
Demand lost momentum with new orders falling 3.0 points to 53.7 and backlogs declining 3.2 points to 51.8, while production index remained robust at 58.3.
Price pressures remained elevated with prices index unchanged at 71.1, indicating broad and persistent increases in input costs.
Imports dropped 3.2 points to 52.5 while new export orders edged up 0.2 points to 53.2, showing mixed trade flows.
The report suggests growth is likely to moderate rather than accelerate in the near term due to weaker new orders, backlogs, and imports.

Key numbers

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.6
Consensus: 55.2
New Orders: 53.7
Backlogs: 51.8
Production Index: 58.3
Prices Index: 71.1
Imports: 52.5

Main risks

Persistently elevated input costs and supply-chain challenges could keep goods inflation firm even as manufacturing growth slows.
Weaker new orders and backlogs may signal further moderation in manufacturing growth.
Customer inventories remained low, leaving scope for replenishment but also potential supply-chain disruptions.

Corresponding source evidence

Output was the strongest part of the report. The production index edged down just 0.2 points to 58.3, indicating another month of robust factory output despite softer order growth. · 2026-08
Price pressures remained elevated. The prices index was unchanged at 71.1, signaling broad and persistent increases in manufacturers’ input costs even as headline activity moderated. · 2026-08
Strong production and low customer inventories remain supportive, while weaker new orders, backlogs and imports suggest growth is likely to moderate rather than accelerate in the near term. · near-term

Conditions / invalidation

if weaker new orders and backlogs persist
if input costs remain elevated