Private credit secondaries

Key arguments

• Primary private credit growth to roughly $4.5 trillion by 2030 has built a larger stock of seasoned fund interests and loans available for secondary transfer.
• Slower repayments, portfolio rebalancing and regulatory or balance-sheet constraints are strengthening seller motivations, including redemption pressure in certain semi-liquid vehicles and BDCs.
• Private credit secondaries offer recurring income, shorter expected duration, contractual maturities and structural downside protection, making returns less dependent on company exits.
• Execution remains selective: illiquidity, manager dispersion, lagging valuations, capped loan upside and correlated exposures require rigorous loan-level and look-through diligence.

Corresponding source evidence

1. On its traditional definition, 1 global private credit assets under management are estimated at approximately $2.3 trillion in 2025 and forecast to reach approximately $4.5 trillion by 2030. · 2025
2. 2 Broader estimates are materially higher when adjacent segments such as specialty finance and asset-backed finance are included.
3. Private credit secondaries: Capturing opportunity through market cycles 3 needs, and regulatory or balance-sheet constraints, and (iii) improved execution capacity, underpinned by greater specialist capital, more established valuation practices, and deeper intermediation.