US Rates Strategy Daily · Consumers Continue Drawing on Reserves

中文标题

美国利率策略日报 · 消费者继续动用储备

SMBC10/23/2026updated 10/23/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC notes that since January 2025 real personal consumption rose 4.2% while real disposable personal income rose only 2.5%; over the past year the gap is 1.3 percentage points (spending 2.6% y/y versus income 1.3% y/y), implying aggregate household dissaving and leverage. The firm expects this to persist while unemployment stays low and household net worth is well supported, and forecasts Q3 GDP growth of 3.6% with Q3 spending growth of 3.4%.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 10/23/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Consumer resilience has underpinned GDP stability despite tariffs, higher energy prices and rate increases.
Real spending growth is outpacing real income growth, implying households are dissaving and effectively levering up.
SMBC expects dissaving to persist as long as unemployment remains low and household net worth stays well supported.
Q3 GDP growth is forecast at 3.6%, partly on 3.4% Q3 spending growth.

Key numbers

Real PCE growth since Jan 2025: 4.2%
Real disposable personal income growth since Jan 2025: 2.5%
Spending-income spread, past 12 months: 1.3 pp
Real spending y/y: 2.6%
Q3 GDP growth forecast: 3.6%

Main risks

Labour market weakening could end the dissaving trend.
A household net worth setback could constrain spending.
The elevated spending-income gap may be unsustainable.

Corresponding source evidence

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