Latam Weekly: Mexico in the SpotlightGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
拉美周报：墨西哥成为焦点 · 全球经济学
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics expects Banxico to leave its policy rate unchanged at its September 2026 meeting, sticking to its message that the current stance is appropriate and showing little indication of moves in either direction. The decision headlines a heavy Mexican calendar that also includes mid-month CPI, expected little changed with headline near 3.3% y/y and core near 3.8% y/y, plus economic activity data. Regional attention centers on Mexico, while policymakers elsewhere in Latam face differing inflation and policy-rate conditions.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- this week · 2000 · 2026 · 2027
Key arguments
- Banxico is expected to hold rates, with communication signaling the current stance is appropriate and no bias in either direction.
- Mexico's calendar is unusually busy versus a quieter G10 and most Latam peers, spanning the Banxico decision, mid-month CPI and activity data.
- Mid-month headline and core inflation are seen little changed around 3.3% and 3.8% y/y respectively.
- Brazil's policy stance remains by far the most restrictive in the region in both nominal and real terms.
Key numbers
- Mexico mid-month headline CPI y/y (expected)
- ~3.3%
- Mexico mid-month core CPI y/y (expected)
- ~3.8%
- Peru Lima CPI y/y (latest)
- 4.4%
- Brazil IPCA-15 y/y (latest)
- 4.2%
- Brazil IPCA-15 m/m (latest)
- -0.4%
Main risks
- Inflation outcomes could deviate from the expected 3.3% headline and 3.8% core, though no scenario is given.
- Banxico's hold expectation is a forecast; the actual decision and guidance could differ.
- Limited detail is available on other Latam economies, so regional comparisons rest on partial data.
Corresponding source evidence
Overview 2–3 Country Updates 4–5 Market Events & Indicators 6–7 Forecast Updates 8 Key Economic Charts 9 Key Market Charts 10 Yield Curves 11 Table of Contents Chart of the Week: Prepared by: Syed Hasnain Abbas, Economic Analyst.
Chart of the Week Brazil Cuts Rates as Inflation Cools, but its Policy Stance Remains the Most Restrictive in the Region, By Far Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BCB, BCRP, Banxico, BCC, BANREP.
There will be a few second -tier central bank decisions (Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway) to watch for a growing hawkish message among policymakers around the globe, and we may get comments from Fed and ECB officials that shake up trading alongside the now usual wave of Middle East headlines driving sentiment.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction