Latam Weekly: Mexican GDP, Rate Decisions, Brazil ResultsGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
拉美周报：墨西哥GDP、利率决议、巴西业绩 · 全球经济研究
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics expects Mexico's Q3 GDP to rise 3.1% y/y, its best in three years, though sequential momentum is fading as consumption grew only 1.1% y/y in July. Chile and Colombia are expected to hold rates at 4.50% and 12.25%, Brazil is seen cutting the Selic to 13.50%, and the Fed is expected to hold. Peru's growth is forecast to outpace the regional average in 2026 and 2027.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/23/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation
- Time horizon
- next week · 2026 · 2027 · this week
Key arguments
- Mexico's May-July momentum carried into Q3, lifting GDP expectations, but consumption and formal job creation remain soft.
- Computer equipment manufacturing rose 12.2% y/y on AI-related technology infrastructure demand, while retail trade grew a moderate 2.4%.
- Peru's private investment is the leading driver of growth expected to exceed the regional average in 2026 and 2027.
- Chile combines economic weakness with higher inflation ahead of its rate decision; the central bank is expected to hold at 4.50%.
Key numbers
- Mexico Q3 GDP y/y (BNS estimate)
- 3.1%
- Mexico Q3 GDP y/y (consensus and latest)
- 2.1%
- Mexico consumption y/y (July)
- 1.1%
- Brazil Selic rate (BNS forecast)
- 13.50%
- Chile overnight rate target (expected hold)
- 4.50%
Main risks
- Mexico's growth could stay moderate near term given weak consumption and slow formal job creation.
- Sequential Mexican momentum is already fading even as the y/y headline improves.
- Chile pairs soft activity with higher inflation, complicating the policy path.
Corresponding source evidence
Next week’s Q3 GDP data may show 3%+ y/y growth, its best reading in three years —albeit with some loss of momentum on a sequential basis.
· next week• The team in Peru discusses their growth forecasts against the latest from the IMF and World Bank, with GDP growth expected to exceed the regional average in each of 2026 and 2027, private investment acting as a leading driver of Peru’s economic expansion.
· 2026Next week’s Q3 GDP data may show 3%+ y/y growth, its best reading in three years— albeit with some loss of momentum on a sequential basis.
· next week
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/23/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/23/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction