Latam Daily: Mexican International Trade and Peruvian Retail Sales Recap

中文标题

拉美日报：墨西哥国际贸易与秘鲁零售销售回顾

Scotiabank Economics08/27/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Scotiabank Economics reports on Mexico's July 2026 trade data showing double-digit growth in exports and imports, with a trade deficit for the month but a surplus for the first half. It also highlights stable unemployment and high informality. For Peru, retail sales in 1H26 grew 11.5% year-over-year, outperforming the broader commerce sector, and the bank forecasts continued growth in 2H26 at a slower pace, with full-year retail sales expected to exceed PEN 56.0bn.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 08/27/2026
Research topic: Retail sales · Peru retail sales · Retail segment
Time horizon: 6M

Key arguments

Mexico's exports grew 43.7% YoY in July 2026, led by non-automotive manufactures and non-oil extractive exports, while imports rose 45.0% YoY, driven by intermediate goods.
Mexico's unemployment rate remained stable at 2.9% in July, but informality remains elevated at 56.2%.
Peru's retail sales grew 11.5% YoY in 1H26, the strongest half-year growth since 2H21, outperforming the overall commerce sector's 6.2% expansion.
Peru's retail sales growth was supported by strong employment, sol appreciation, and retail capacity expansion, but constrained by inflationary pressures from recent events.

Key numbers

Mexico July exports: USD 81.4bn
Mexico July imports: USD 82.3bn
Mexico July trade balance: USD -848mn
Mexico exports growth YoY: 43.7%
Mexico imports growth YoY: 45.0%
Mexico 1H26 trade balance: USD 9.255bn surplus
Mexico July unemployment rate: 2.9%
Peru 1H26 retail sales: PEN 27.1bn

Main risks

Inflationary pressures from oil price volatility and geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Strait of Hormuz) could constrain household spending in Peru.
Atypically mild winter in Peru could reduce demand for cold weather apparel, affecting department store sales.
Elevated informality in Mexico could limit labor market improvements and consumption.

Corresponding source evidence

For 2H26, we expect retail sales to remain on a positive trajectory, albeit at a slower pace than in 1H26. · 6M
Finally, home improvement sales rose 9%, underpinned by the strength of the real estate sector—new mortgage loans increased by nearly 12% in 1H26—and sustained demand for hardware products and goods used in self-construction—domestic cement consumption rose 12% in 1H26, according to INEI. · 6M
the sol’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar, which lowered the local currency relative prices of imported goods—the sol appreciated by around 7% against the U.S. dollar in 1H26 · 6M

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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