Latam Daily: Highest Ever Peruvian Auto SalesGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

拉美日报：秘鲁汽车销量创历史新高 · 全球经济

Scotiabank Economics09/18/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Peruvian new vehicle sales reached a record monthly high in August 2026, with cumulative sales of 188,816 units through August, up nearly 40% year-to-date. Scotiabank Economics forecasts 270,000 units for full-year 2026, an all-time high, with upside risk from stronger consumption, favourable financing and improving business confidence. Growth should moderate on a demanding Q4-2025 comparison base; geopolitical Hormuz risk and a higher El Niño probability are downside risks.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/18/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: 2026 · December 2025 · 2024 · year-end 2026

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

Record August sales came in above expectations, with annual growth above 40%, bringing upside risk to the 2026 forecast.
Drivers include formal private employment growth, stronger private consumption, a 5% YTD Sol appreciation, lower auto loan rates and wider SUV availability.
SUV sales rose close to 53% YTD and heavy vehicles 40% YTD, led by trucks and tractor-trailers.
September sales expected around 24,000 units, but growth likely moderates given September-December 2025 average YoY growth above 30%.

Key numbers

August 2026 monthly vehicle sales: Record high, above 40% YoY growth
Cumulative sales through August 2026: 188,816 units, up nearly 40% YTD
Light vehicles YTD: 167,244 units, up ~40% YTD
SUV sales YTD: Up close to 53% YTD
2026 full-year forecast: 270,000 units

Main risks

Middle East conflict could disrupt oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, raising operating costs for net oil importer Peru and lifting food prices via fertilizer costs.
A higher probability of an El Niño event could erode real household income and delay heavy-vehicle fleet renewal via infrastructure damage.
Impact depends on the duration and intensity of shocks and the speed of authorities' response.

Corresponding source evidence

As a result, sales through August bring upside risk to our full -year 2026 forecast. · 2026
For September, we expect sales of around 24,000 units, slightly above the average monthly level recorded between January and August.
However, growth is likely to moderate in the coming months given a demanding comparison base: average year -over - year growth between September and December 2025 exceeded 30%, above the 25% growth rate recorded for full -year 2025. · December 2025

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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