Latam Daily: Another Chilean GDP Drop, Peruvian Inflation RisesGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

拉丁美洲每日报告：智利GDP再度下滑，秘鲁通胀上升·全球经济

Scotiabank Economics09/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Scotiabank Economics reports that Chile's GDP contracted 1.5% y/y in July 2026, with rising risks of a third consecutive quarterly contraction in Q3-26, and expects the central bank to slash its 2026 growth forecast to 0.25%-0.75% in next week's MPR. In Peru, headline inflation accelerated to 4.4% y/y in August due to base effects, while core inflation eased to 4.5%; however, core inflation excluding transportation was contained at 1.8%, suggesting underlying pressures remain subdued.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/01/2026
Research topic: Central Bank Forecast · Chile GDP · Inflation Risk
Time horizon: 2026 · 2026-2027

Key arguments

Chile's July GDP fell 1.5% y/y, worse than expected, impacted by El Niño and weak investment execution.
The risk of a third seasonally adjusted quarterly contraction in Q3-26 is increasing, a situation not seen since 2009.
Scotiabank expects the BCCh to significantly lower its 2026 GDP growth forecast range to 0.25%-0.75% in next week's MPR.
Peru's headline inflation reaccelerated to 4.4% y/y in August due to base effects, while core inflation eased slightly.
Core inflation excluding transportation is 1.8% y/y, indicating contained underlying inflationary pressures in Peru.

Key numbers

Chile July GDP growth (y/y): -1.5%
Chile 2026 GDP forecast range (current): 1.0% - 1.75%
Chile 2026 GDP forecast range (projected lower): 0.25% - 0.75%
Scotiabank Chile 2026 GDP forecast: 0.7%
Peru annual inflation July 2026: 4.1%
Peru annual inflation August 2026: 4.4%
Peru core inflation August 2026 (y/y): 4.5%
Peru core inflation ex-transportation August 2026 (y/y): 1.8%

Main risks

Further adverse impact of El Niño on Chilean activity, especially in mining and services, could lead to deeper contraction in Q3-26.
Chilean economy may fail to exit the technical recession, posting a third sequential quarterly contraction, a situation not seen since 2009.
In Peru, El Niño could generate additional inflationary pressures towards the end of 2026 and early 2027.
Higher international oil prices could keep inflationary pressures in transportation elevated, affecting core inflation.

Corresponding source evidence

We estimate that the Central Bank will revise its 2026 GDP growth forecast significantly lower in next week ’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), moving from the current 1.0% –1.75% range to between 0.25% and 0.75%. · 2026
Looking ahead, El Niño could generate additional inflationary pressures toward the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. · 2026-2027

Conditions / invalidation

If El Niño effects materialize

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.