GLOBAL ECONOMICSDAILY POINTS

Key arguments

• Flavio Bolsonaro's refusal to accept the result points to post-election uncertainty similar to the aftermath of the prior Bolsonaro defeat.
• Brazilian equities and the real are expected to give back much of their post-first-round rally.
• BC's Conservative platform (spending review, red-tape cuts, gas output targets, pipeline support, $1,000 tax cut) is business-friendly, but delivery and execution risk now dominate.
• BC provincial spreads are unlikely to react materially, given the result was not a surprise to polling.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Sovereign bonds are mixed with notable moves including a small rally in French spreads over bunds, after weekend protests were less than feared, and Brazil’s 10 -year yield that is soaring by about 30bps.
2. • to cut red tape • to double natural gas production by 2032 and triple it by 2035 • work more closely with the federal government and Alberta in support of the Pacific Link pipeline from Alberta through BC in order to export more oil to Asia. · 2032
3. • speed up permits to months instead of years • back mining exploration • a $1,000 tax cut per person with no new taxes • replace the George Massey Tunnel with a 10-lane bridge and scrap the current tunnel replacement plan.