OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (4 Sep 2026)

中文标题

华侨银行每日国债展望（2026年9月4日）

OCBC Research09/04/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The article provides OCBC's daily treasury outlook, focusing on US market movements, upcoming labor data, and regional developments. US equities rebounded on strong services data and dovish Fed comments, while oil prices held near highs. The report anticipates the August US employment report and highlights mixed signals in the labor market.

Institution: OCBC Research
Published: 09/04/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · S&P 500 · US 10Y Treasury
Time horizon: 2022 · 2027 · January 2027

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI S&P 500 · SPX US 10Y Treasury · US10Y

Key arguments

Strong US services PMI data (S&P Global at 56.5, ISM at 55.4) indicate robust activity but persistent inflation pressures, as seen in elevated input costs and prices-paid index.
Fed Governor Waller's dovish commentary eased rate hike fears, supporting equities and weakening the dollar.
The August US jobs report is expected to show a rebound in nonfarm payrolls (+55k) after a July decline, but continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting subdued hiring.
Bank Negara Malaysia kept rates unchanged, signaling resilience and vigilance on inflation, with expected normalization in early 2027.

Key numbers

S&P 500: 7,747.71 (+1.1%)
NASDAQ: 26,584.06 (+1.4%)
10Y UST yield: 4.77% (-1bp)
DXY: 98.908 (-0.69%)
WTI crude: $91.30/bbl (+0.3%)
Gold: $4,473/oz (+2.1%)
US ISM Services PMI: 55.4 (Aug)
US nonfarm payrolls forecast: +55k (Aug)

Main risks

US labor market weakening more than expected, with elevated continuing claims and subdued hiring.
Persistent inflation pressures could prompt Fed to resume rate hikes, contrary to market expectations.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies and escalate oil prices.
Global economic slowdown affecting Asian economies, as seen in Hong Kong PMI contraction.

Corresponding source evidence

Brent crude briefly reached a six-week high before settling largely unchanged at USD95.5/bbl.
The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 56.5 in August from 54.6, its strongest reading in 20 months, supported by stronger new business and improving employment.
However, input costs remained elevated, with the survey noting that this was “amid further reports of higher fuel and gas prices.” Similarly, the ISM Services rose to 55.4 from 54.1, marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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