OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (4 Aug 2026)

Key arguments

• US equities rallied strongly on easing Middle East tensions and robust earnings, with S&P 500 up 1.5% and Nasdaq up 2.1%.
• US manufacturing activity strengthened markedly, with ISM PMI at 55.6, a four-year high, indicating broad-based improvements.
• Brent crude fell around 5% to US$83-84 per barrel due to diplomatic efforts, but Iran denied talks, keeping uncertainty.
• Indonesia's June exports surged 8.8% YoY, imports accelerated to 34.3%, and trade deficit narrowed to USD0.5bn.
• Indonesia's July headline inflation eased to 2.9% YoY, with core inflation unchanged at 2.8%, and 2026 CPI forecast maintained at 3.0%.
• Singapore aims to green 80% of buildings by 2030, with developers recovering SLE investments within 5-6 years.
• US IG and HY credit spreads tightened, while Asia USD IG spreads were flat and HY widened slightly.

Corresponding source evidence

1. US stocks rallied strongly on Monday, as easing Middle East tensions and robust corporate earnings lifted all major indices. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3%, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in two months. · short-term
2. Brent crude fell around 5% to US$83-84 per barrel following reports that President Trump had called off planned strikes on Iran and renewed diplomatic efforts. However, Iran subsequently denied that any talks with the US had been arranged, stating that it remains engaged only in negotiations with Oman. · near-term