OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (3 Aug 2026)
中文标题
华侨银行每日外汇展望(3月2026日)
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
OCBC Research's Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a mixed global risk tone with hopes of a US-Iran deal, a rebound in US equities despite Fed uncertainty, rising long-end Treasury yields, and diverging regional economic data across Asia. Key forecasts include a revised Hong Kong GDP growth of 3.8% for 2026, a downward revision for Macau to 4.0%, and continued BOJ policy normalization expectations for Thailand in 2027.
- Institution
- OCBC Research
- Published
- 08/03/2026
- Research topic
- Geopolitics · Global risk assets · Equity market
- Time horizon
- short_term · past_week · full_year_2026 · past_day
Key arguments
- Hopes of a US-Iran deal may improve risk sentiment after Trump shelved military strikes.
- The S&P 500 rebounded 0.7% on Friday, aided by strong Amazon earnings, despite Fed uncertainty.
- Fed dissenters called for rate hikes, leading to higher Treasury yields and policy uncertainty.
- China's manufacturing PMI fell into contraction at 49.2, with weakness in domestic demand.
- Hong Kong's GDP growth moderated to 4.3% YoY in 2Q26, but 2026 forecast raised to 3.8%.
- Macau's economy slowed sharply, prompting a downward revision to 4.0% growth for 2026.
- Thailand's 2Q26 GDP is tracking 2.3% YoY, with upside risks to the full-year forecast of 1.5%.
- Australia's PPI surged 1.3% QoQ in 2Q26, the largest since September 2023.
Key numbers
- S&P 500 close
- 7489.7
- 10Y UST yield
- 4.74%
- 30Y UST yield
- 5.27%
- China manufacturing PMI
- 49.2
- Hong Kong 2Q26 GDP growth YoY
- 4.3%
- Macau 2026 GDP forecast
- 4.0%
- Thailand 2Q26 GDP tracking
- 2.3% YoY
- Australia PPI QoQ
- 1.3%
Main risks
- Uncertainty over Fed policy direction and potential rate hikes could weigh on risk assets.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, remain a risk to oil supply.
- China's manufacturing contraction could signal broader economic slowdown.
- Inflation pressures persist in the Philippines and could prompt stricter BSP stance.
- US Treasury yield curve steepening may reflect rising term premium and policy uncertainty.
Corresponding source evidence
Hopes of a deal being negotiated with Iran may see risk sentiments kick off this week with a better tone after US president Trump shelved military strikes.
· short_termStill, the S&P 500 recovered from Wednesday's tumble to rebounded 0.7% last Friday, helped by stronger- than-expected earnings from Amazon.
· past_weekWe estimate that 2Q26 GDP is tracking 2.3% YoY versus 2.8% in 1Q26. With 1H26 GDP growth at 2.6%, we see upside risks to our full year 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.5%.
· full_year_2026
Conditions / invalidation
- if a deal with Iran is reached
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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Publisher disclaimer
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · SPX
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCBC ResearchOCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (3 Aug 2026) | 08/03/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCorrelation falls the index stays quiet - Options Brief | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankInvestor QA AI selloff hot CPI and what can investors do | 10/15/2026 | Neutral | — | medium term |
| UBS CIODaily: Higher inflation need not derail US assets | 10/15/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by OCBC Research on 08/03/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction