Nomura’s Chip Shortage Index: A Signal for AI Era Business Cycle

中文标题

野村芯片短缺指数：AI时代商业周期的信号

Nomura Connects09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Nomura introduces a Chip Shortage Index (CSI) to track semiconductor supply-demand imbalances, which it identifies as a key driver of the AI-era business cycle. The index currently reads 103.8, indicating a severe shortage that is expected to sustain elevated chip prices through 2027 and beyond.

Institution: Nomura Connects
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: Semiconductors
Time horizon: 2024

Semiconductors · SOX

Key arguments

AI-driven demand for chips is more persistent than past cycles, as multi-year spending plans reduce price sensitivity.
Supply growth is constrained by the fading benefits of Moore's Law and long lead times for new capacity.
Shortages create feedback loops through investment overshoot and customer overordering, amplifying cyclical swings.
The current cycle combines industry momentum with a large shortage shock, leading to a more persistent price impulse.

Key numbers

Nomura CSI current reading (July): 103.8
Nomura CSI baseline (balanced): 100

Main risks

High prices could spur new capacity, leading to oversupply and a cyclical downturn.
The model is based on historical relationships that may change in the AI era.
Shortages may ease faster than expected if demand shifts or capacity comes online sooner.

Corresponding source evidence

Semiconductor export prices provide the economic anchor for our model, given their importance to Korea’s terms of trade, income growth and broader economic outlook.
2024-25 recovery was again powered by industry momentum. · 2024

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗