Middle East Weekly Tracker - Saudi’s resilience to the war has ended with the closure of the east-west pipeline with pressure on the oil market

中文标题

中东周报 - 沙特对战争的韧性已终结，东西向输油管道关闭，油价面临压力

Natixis09/16/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Saudi Arabia announced closure of its East-West pipeline on 11 September after drone attacks from Iraq, ending its war resilience and pressuring oil markets. Brent reached USD108/bbl on 16 September. Houthi forces took Perim Island near Bab el-Mandeb, raising Red Sea shipping risks, and Oman postponed the Iran Gulf meeting. GCC CDS widened across Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar. Foreign outflows from Saudi and Dubai equities eased to USD155mn in the week to 13 September. No Hormuz corridor or US-Iran settlement was confirmed.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 09/16/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after Iraqi drone attacks ended its resilience to the war, directly pressuring oil markets.
Houthi seizure of Perim Island near Bab el-Mandeb increased risks to Red Sea shipping, with tanker arrivals down nearly 50% since July.
GCC CDS widened in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar on concerns over export revenues and public finances.
Diplomacy slowed: Oman postponed the Iran Gulf meeting, and no operational Hormuz corridor or wider US-Iran settlement has been confirmed.

Key numbers

Brent crude: USD108/bbl on 16 September
Foreign outflows from Saudi and Dubai equities: USD155mn in week to 13 September
Bab el-Mandeb tanker arrivals: down nearly 50% since July
East-West pipeline closure date: 11 September
Oman Iran Gulf meeting postponed: 13–14 September

Main risks

Further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Saudi airstrikes in Yemen could keep tensions elevated.
No operational Hormuz corridor or wider US-Iran settlement is confirmed, leaving diplomatic uncertainty.
Threats to Red Sea shipping could weaken GCC export revenues and public finances, as reflected in wider CDS.

Corresponding source evidence

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