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MUFG外汇日报：欧洲宏观周报

MUFG08/14/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The UK economy showed resilience in Q2 2026 with GDP growth of 0.4% Q/Q, supported by strong investment and services, but MUFG expects a slowdown in H2 due to fiscal speculation and rising inflation, projecting 1.2% average growth for 2026. The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, while the ECB is expected to hike once more in September.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 08/14/2026
Research topic: UK Q3 growth · UK GDP
Time horizon: Q3 2026

Key arguments

Q2 GDP growth of 0.42% Q/Q exceeded expectations, driven by strong fixed investment and services.
AI adoption is supporting corporate capex, contributing to a broad cyclical recovery in professional services.
Momentum into Q3 is decent with carryover implying 0.2% Q/Q if flat, but risks are skewed to the upside.
Fiscal speculation ahead of the Autumn Budget and rising inflation will weigh on H2 activity.
BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, but risks are tilted towards tightening given unresolved US-Iran situation.
ECB is expected to deliver one more rate hike in September.

Key numbers

UK Q2 GDP growth: 0.4% Q/Q
UK 2026 average growth forecast: 1.2%
CPI inflation peak in Q4: ~3.5%
July CPI forecast: 3.0% YoY
OBR fiscal headroom: £23.6bn
ECB rate hike: one more in September

Main risks

Geopolitical uncertainty, especially the US-Iran situation, could escalate and impact growth.
Higher energy costs could push CPI inflation higher than expected, weighing on real incomes.
Second-round effects from energy prices could emerge, prompting BoE tightening.
Fiscal headroom could be eroded more than expected, leading to tighter fiscal policy.

Corresponding source evidence

The carryover implies that, if monthly GDP were flat through Q3, quarterly growth would come in at 0.2% Q/Q. · Q3 2026

Conditions / invalidation

If monthly GDP were flat through Q3.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.