Economic Monthly: ASEAN, India and Australia(May 2026 – Simple Edition) (208KB)

中文标题

经济月报：东盟、印度与澳大利亚（2026年5月 – 简明版）（208KB）

MUFG08/20/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

MUFG's monthly indicator tables for eight Asia-Pacific economies show growth holding up through April 2026, led by Vietnam (Q1 real GDP +7.8% YoY) and Indonesia (+5.6%), while Singapore and Malaysia decelerate mildly (Singapore Q1 +4.6%; Malaysia Q4 +6.3%). Inflation diverges: Thailand's CPI turned +2.9% YoY in April, Australia's hit +4.6%, while Indonesia eased to +2.4%. Policy is broadly steady, though Australia's cash rate rose to 4.10% and India's repo rate stands at 5.25%. Currencies softened against the dollar in most markets.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 08/20/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Regional growth remains positive but uneven: Vietnam and Indonesia lead on Q1 real GDP, while Singapore and Malaysia show milder readings and the Philippines slowed to 2.8%.
Inflation paths diverge: Thai CPI returned to +2.9% YoY and Australian CPI reached +4.6% in April, versus Indonesia's cooling to +2.4%.
Policy rates are mostly on hold (Indonesia 4.75%, Thailand 1.00%, Vietnam 4.50%, India 5.25%), with Australia the exception at 4.10%.
Regional currencies depreciated against the USD through April 2026, with USD/IDR at 17,141 and USD/PHP at 60.29.

Key numbers

Vietnam real GDP growth, 26Q1 YoY: +7.8%
Indonesia real GDP growth, 26Q1 YoY: +5.6%
Singapore real GDP growth, 26Q1 YoY: +4.6%
Australia CPI, Apr-26 YoY: +4.6%
Thailand CPI, Apr-26 YoY: +2.9%

Main risks

Inflation reacceleration in Thailand and Australia could delay or reverse rate cuts, pressuring local bonds and currencies.
Philippine growth slowing to 2.8% YoY, with a widening trade deficit of USD 4.5bn in March, exposes peso and external accounts.
Currency depreciation (USD/IDR 17,141, USD/PHP 60.29) may force tighter monetary stances and weigh on import-dependent sectors.

Corresponding source evidence

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