Forex · Forex Flash The Fed raises rates and the dollar dominates
中文标题
外汇 · 外汇快报 美联储加息，美元主导
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The Federal Reserve raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, unanimous, the first rise in over three years. Most FOMC members expect at least one more hike in 2026; PCE inflation is projected at 3.7% and a return to 2% is pushed to 2029. The dollar jumped 0.7% on DXY to a five-week high. The BoE held at 3.75% with a hawkish tilt; the BoJ hiked to 1.25% yet the yen fell over 100 pips.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation · GBP/USD
- Time horizon
- 2027 · year-end 2026 · December 2026
Key arguments
- The Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, the first in over three years, cementing a hawkish shift under Chairman Warsh.
- 16 of 18 FOMC members expect at least one further 25bp rise by end-2026; SEP shows PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4%.
- The dollar strengthened 0.7% on DXY to a five-week high, supported by yield spreads, anti-inflation credibility and resilient data.
- The BoE held rates at 3.75% but signalled readiness to hike; the BoJ's hike to 1.25% was followed by a yen slump to 157.53.
Key numbers
- Fed funds target range
- 3.75%-4.00%
- DXY move
- +0.7% to a five-week high
- FOMC members expecting at least one more hike
- 16 out of 18
- BoE Bank Rate
- 3.75% (6-3 vote)
- BoJ policy rate
- 1.25%
Main risks
- Economic data may weaken faster than expected, particularly with the prime rate at 7% and mortgage rates near that level, forcing the Fed to pause—a scenario not priced in.
- The BoE's hawkish shift could be upended if the Iran conflict escalates or inflation overshoots, while Bailey warned higher rates may be needed.
- The BoJ's hike failed to support the yen, highlighting that yield differentials and carry dynamics may keep JPY under pressure despite tightening.
Corresponding source evidence
The key takeaway is that 16 out of 18 FOMC members expect at leas t one further 25 -basis -point rise by the end of the year.
• The Bank of England kept the Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6 -3 vote, but adopted a marked shift in tone: inflation could exceed 4% in early 2027, and Governor Bailey warned that the continuation of the conflict in Iran could necessitate higher rates.
· 2027The pound reacted negatively, whilst long -dated gilts recorded their strongest rally since May.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction