Why ai matters for india and the philippines

中文标题

为何人工智能对印度和菲律宾至关重要

ING THINK09/16/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

AI disruption fears look premature in India and the Philippines, per ING. India's software and business services exports are ~8.5% of GDP versus a 0.5% current account deficit; Philippine telecom and business services exports are ~7% of GDP against a 3.5% deficit. Export growth held near 12% year-on-year by mid-2026. Since 2022, India's digitally delivered services exports rose 45% (global: 32%); the Philippines' rose 24%, shifting toward financial and computer services. Only about 4% of jobs sit in the highest automation-risk category. Evidence indicates adaptation and upgrading, not decline.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/16/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2022

Key arguments

Services exports are critical: they more than finance both countries' current account deficits, so their resilience matters beyond growth and jobs.
Export growth has stayed intact even after the post-Covid digitalisation surge and the mainstream AI boom since ChatGPT, contradicting broad displacement fears.
India is gaining global share via higher-value business services and GCC-driven work; the Philippines is adjusting its mix toward financial and computer services.
Automation exposure is concentrated in routine, rules-based tasks; demand is shifting to analytics, software development and knowledge-intensive work.

Key numbers

India software services exports: ~$205bn annual
Philippines BPO/outsourcing revenue: >$40bn annual
Workers supported: India ~5.8m; Philippines ~1.9m
India DDS export growth since 2022: 45% vs global 32%
Jobs in highest automation-risk category: ~4%

Main risks

Sector-level employment data are not readily available for either country, so labour-market impacts may be understated.
India's top IT firms added just 17 net employees in the first nine months of FY2026, hinting AI may already reduce traditional hiring.
Composition is shifting toward higher-value work; workers without analytics, software or compliance skills may still face displacement.

Corresponding source evidence

While the country's share of global DDS exports has remained broadly unchanged since 2022, the export mix appears to be evolving. · 2022
The National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) expects India's technology workforce to reach around 6 million workers in FY26, up 2.3% YoY.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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