Turkish current account deficit maintains widening trend

中文标题

土耳其经常账户赤字维持扩大趋势

ING THINK09/11/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Turkey's current account was broadly balanced in July 2026, missing expectations of a modest surplus, as the 12-month rolling deficit widened to US$40.7bn, about 2.6% of GDP, from US$39.0bn a month earlier. The monthly position deteriorated from a US$1.8bn surplus a year earlier, mainly because the trade deficit widened from US$4.6bn to US$5.6bn amid higher energy prices linked to the US-Iran war, with a larger primary income deficit adding to the erosion. Robust capital inflows of US$13.6bn plus US$0.6bn from net errors and omissions lifted official reserves by US$14.3bn in July. For January-July, foreign inflows jumped to US$44.1bn from US$27.7bn a year earlier, but elevated errors-and-omissions outflows and a wider current account deficit left reserves down US$16.1bn versus a US$8.6bn fall in 2025. The report sees the deficit trajectory ahead shaped by external risks and domestic demand, with geopolitics raising upside risks via oil and gas prices, while a US-Iran agreement would ease energy pressure.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/11/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: 2025

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

Turkey's current account was broadly balanced in July 2026, missing a consensus US$0.7bn surplus and ING's US$0.4bn forecast.
The 12-month rolling deficit widened to US$40.7bn (about 2.6% of GDP) from US$39.0bn a month earlier.
The monthly position swung from a US$1.8bn surplus a year earlier to balance, as the trade deficit widened from US$4.6bn to US$5.6bn.
A higher energy import bill tied to the US-Iran war and a larger primary income deficit both weighed on the current account.
July capital inflows of US$13.6bn plus US$0.6bn in net errors and omissions lifted official reserves by US$14.3bn.
Non-residents added US$6.6bn to portfolio investments and US$2.2bn to local bank deposits, with US$3.5bn of additional net borrowing.
Long-term debt rollover ratios reached 207% for corporates and 136% for banks in July, versus 228% and 148% on a 12-month rolling basis.
For January-July, capital inflows almost doubled to US$31.1bn, but elevated errors-and-omissions outflows and a wider current account deficit left reserves down US$16.1bn.

Key numbers

12-month rolling current account deficit: US$40.7bn (~2.6% of GDP)
Prior month 12-month rolling deficit: US$39.0bn
July current account balance: Broadly balanced (vs US$1.8bn surplus in July 2025)
Consensus expectation for July: US$0.7bn surplus (ING forecast: US$0.4bn)
Trade deficit (July): US$5.6bn (from US$4.6bn)
Capital account inflows (July): US$13.6bn
Net errors and omissions (July): US$0.6bn inflow
Change in official reserves (July): +US$14.3bn

Main risks

Geopolitical shock from the US-Iran war has pushed energy prices higher, increasing upside risks to the current account deficit.
Preliminary customs data indicate a smaller current account surplus in August; the deficit trend remains intact.
Elevated errors-and-omissions outflows (US$14.4bn in Jan-Jul) complicate reserve accumulation despite record foreign inflows.
Deterioration in the core trade deficit alongside the energy balance points to broad-based external pressure.
Resident outflows via portfolio asset acquisition continue to offset part of foreign inflows.

Corresponding source evidence

Meanwhile, stronger capital inflows led to a recovery in official reserves In July, Turkey's current account balance was broadly balanced, compared with market expectations of a US$0.7bn surplus (our forecast was US$0.4bn).
Reflecting the deterioration over the previous year, the 12‑month rolling deficit widened to US$40.7bn, or approximately 2.6% of GDP, from US$39.0bn a month earlier.
A closer look at the monthly figures shows that the current account surplus narrowed to balance from a US$1.8bn surplus in the same month of 2025, primarily due to a wider trade deficit, which deteriorated from US$4.6bn to US$5.6bn. · 2025

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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