Road transport gaining momentum in the first year of the truck charge

中文标题

道路运输在卡车收费实施首年势头渐增

ING THINK09/22/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Dutch road freight volumes are set to grow roughly 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with revenue up about 15%. Costs are climbing on 4% driver wage increases, a 30% diesel price surge tied to the Iran conflict, and the July 2026 truck charge, which lifts total transport costs by roughly 7-8% before a 2026 discount expires. Q2 freight rates rose about 9%, broadly covering costs, but the second half of 2026 is the critical test for margins.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/22/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2023 · 2026

Key arguments

Volumes are recovering but patchily after the 2023 correction and two years of uneven growth; momentum could build toward 2027 if Germany emerges from stagnation.
Labour, fuel and the truck charge are stacking up: wages rose 4% at the start of 2026 and diesel is about 30% above 2025 levels through early September.
Q2 freight rates rose around 9%, broadly offsetting costs, but the second half of 2026 is the critical test as the truck scheme is fully priced in.
Infrastructure maintenance backlogs and congestion raise costs and favour larger operators, pointing to continued consolidation.

Key numbers

2026 road freight volume growth: ~1%
2027 road freight volume growth: ~1.5%
Diesel price increase vs 2025: ~30%
Total transport cost increase from truck charge: ~7-8%
2026 sector revenue growth: ~15%

Main risks

Cost pass-through may lag, especially in highly competitive markets, temporarily squeezing margins and raising liquidity pressure.
Geopolitical disruptions and supply chain adjustments keep market conditions volatile and could reverse the freight recovery.
Infrastructure bottlenecks and the €34.5bn maintenance backlog through 2038 cause detours and closures, adding costs.

Corresponding source evidence

Rate increases help to offset costs, but margins remain under pressure Following the 2023 market correction and two years of uneven growth, recovery remains patchy across the road transport sector Road freight transport: rising costs but a gradually improving market The modest recovery in road freight transport is set to continue in 2026. · 2023
However, following the 2023 market correction and two years of uneven growth, the recovery remains patchy across the sector. · 2023
While 2026 began cautiously, momentum could build toward 2027 if Germany continues to emerge from its prolonged economic stagnation. · 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗

Download institution PDF