Rising energy prices may force the nbp into a 50bp rate hike in early 2027

Key arguments

• September CPI estimated at 4.2% YoY, above the NBP's 2.5% +/-1pp tolerance band, driven primarily by an energy shock.
• Higher crude oil prices plus the expiry of fuel tax relief and the reinstatement of 23% VAT on fuels pushed petrol and diesel sharply higher; fuels alone added around 2pp to annual CPI.
• Inflation is likely to remain above 4% YoY in coming months, raising the risk that energy-driven increases broaden into persistent pressures; the projected 2027 disinflation looks increasingly uncertain.
• ING expects a cumulative 50bp NBP hike to 4.25% in early 2027, notably less than the roughly 125bp priced by markets; an earlier move after the November projection cannot be ruled out.

Corresponding source evidence

1. We expect inflation to move well above the upper bound of the National Bank of Poland s tolerance band in September.
2. We estimate that fuels alone contributed around 2 percentage points to annual CPI inflation in September.
3. A prolonged period of elevated inflation raises the risk that energy-driven price increases eventually broaden into more persistent inflationary pressures.