Polish consumers keep spending but momentum softens

中文标题

波兰消费者支出不减，但动能趋弱

ING THINK10/22/2026updated 10/22/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Polish retail sales rose 3.3% year-on-year in September, below ING's 4.2% forecast and August's 3.8%. Durable goods grew at double-digit rates, while food and fuel rose 1.4% and textiles fell 3.0%. The absence of the CPN fuel discount and real wage growth of just 1.3% YoY, the slowest in over three years, weighed on the headline. Consumer sentiment fell further in October; ING expects 2026 consumption growth below 2025's 4.0%.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 10/22/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2026

Key arguments

Retail sales missed forecasts but remain resilient, supported by fuel-market interventions and accumulated savings.
Durable goods outperform: vehicles +13.1% YoY, furniture/electronics/appliances +10.7%, pharmaceuticals +8.5%.
Essentials lag: food and fuel +1.4% YoY, textiles -3.0%; the September absence of the CPN fuel discount partly explains weak fuel sales.
Consumer sentiment (WWUK) fell in October toward its March low, pointing to softer 2026 consumption growth than 2025's 4.0%.

Key numbers

September retail sales, YoY: 3.3%
ING forecast: 4.2%
Consensus forecast: 3.6%
Real wage bill growth, YoY: 1.3%
2025 household consumption growth: 4.0%

Main risks

Deteriorating consumer confidence could cut consumption growth further into 2026.
Slowing real wage growth may erode purchasing power, especially for lower-income households.
Expiry of fuel excise/VAT interventions would remove a key support to spending.

Corresponding source evidence

Nevertheless, we expect household consumption growth in 2026 to be lower than the 4.0% recorded in 2025. · 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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