Poland fuel prices pushed inflation higher in august as energy outlook deteriorates
中文标题
波兰燃料价格推高8月通胀，能源前景恶化
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Poland's August CPI was confirmed at 3.4% YoY, with fuel prices up 24.2% YoY and adding roughly 0.5pp versus July. Energy supplied more than half of the annual increase, while food deflation deepened and core inflation stayed near 3.2% YoY. With Brent above US$100, TTF near €83/MWh and 2027 power forwards at PLN590/MWh, ING sees CPI near 4% and no NBP easing before H2 2027.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/15/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Natural Gas
- Time horizon
- near-term · 2027 · year-end 2026
Key arguments
- Higher fuel prices were the dominant driver: fuel inflation accelerated to 24.2% YoY from 15.8%, contributing roughly 0.5pp to the annual rate versus July.
- Disinflationary offsets persist: food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 0.9% YoY, with meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables declining MoM and retail competition intense.
- Core inflation edged up only marginally to 3.2% YoY from 3.1%, as weakening demand and slower wage growth cap broader price pressures.
- Rate increases on the scale priced by the market remain unlikely; the MPC is expected to hold at least through end-2026, with easing unlikely before H2 2027.
Key numbers
- August CPI (YoY)
- 3.4%
- Fuel price inflation (YoY)
- 24.2% (prior 15.8%)
- Core inflation (YoY)
- 3.2% (prior 3.1%)
- Brent crude
- above US$100/bbl
- TTF 1-month gas
- about €83/MWh; 2027 Polish power forward PLN590/MWh
Main risks
- Persistent Middle East tensions and no Strait of Hormuz agreement, plus Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab shipping threats and damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, could keep fuel prices elevated for longer.
- High gas and power prices could significantly raise URE-regulated household electricity and gas tariffs from the start of 2027.
- Each additional month of elevated fuel prices raises the risk of second-round inflation effects, with CPI potentially rising towards 4% YoY near term.
Corresponding source evidence
We estimate that core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy prices) increased marginally to 3.2% YoY in August, from 3.1% in July.
As a result, the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated, mainly because of the risk that fuel prices will remain elevated for longer.
· near-termThis could result in a significant increase in regulated household electricity and natural gas prices under tariffs approved by Poland’s Energy Regulatory Office (URE), which are due to come into effect at the beginning of 2027.
· 2027
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/15/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction