Our latest views on the major central banks september 2026

中文标题

我们对主要央行最新观点的更新 2026年9月

ING THINK09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates on 16 September, with the ECB also set to raise rates in September as an 'insurance' move; the Bank of England likely to hold with rate cuts in 2027, and the Bank of Japan to hike by 25bp to 1.25% in September with two more hikes likely.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: BoE rationale · GBPUSD
Time horizon: coming months

Key arguments

Fed's new stance is to hike unless data justifies a pause, making a September hike the most probable outcome.
ECB sees eurozone resilience and rising inflation, justifying another 'insurance' rate hike.
Bank of England faces high bar for hikes; two rate cuts expected in 2027 unless fiscal loosening.
Bank of Japan likely to hike in September, with two more hikes in Jan and Apr next year.

Key numbers

Fed expected rate hike date: 16 September
UK inflation peak next winter: 3.5%
BoJ predicted policy rate after September: 1.25%
BoJ neutral policy rate: 2.00%
BoJ expected hikes in Jan and Apr: two follow-up hikes

Main risks

US data might justify a pause, limiting the Fed's hike to a risk-management move rather than a series.
Eurozone second-round effects from energy shock could force more ECB hikes.
UK October budget could see fiscal loosening, changing the Bank of England's path.
BoJ might not deliver 75bp tightening if government pro-growth agenda resists.

Corresponding source evidence

We think the bar is still relatively high for a Bank of England rate hike. · coming months

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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